After the ROY award, there is a lot more to come for O's Gunnar Henderson

There were 41 players taken ahead of the Orioles’ Gunnar Henderson in the 2019 MLB Draft. If they could re-do that draft today, that number would be very, very different.

At No. 42 the Orioles got a steal.

A driven young talent that rose to become the No. 1 prospect in the sport. He made the majors at age 21 and turned 22 last June 29. Later in the 2023 season he would be named the Most Valuable Oriole and in November he was the unanimous pick – getting all 30 first-place votes – to become the Orioles’ seventh American League Rookie of the Year.

When you think of what is still to come for this kid and how good he could become, you might ponder future MVP Awards and him leading the team to the top of the MLB world in some October down the road.

On the stat sheet we could ponder how much better the numbers could get for him.

In the 2023 season, he batted .255/.325/.489/.814 with 29 doubles, nine triples, 28 homers, 100 runs and 82 RBIs. Those numbers, which produced an OPS+ of 125 for his season, would have been better with a better start. In mid-May he was batting .170 with a .651 OPS and then he produced an OPS of .849 his last 117 games.

One player comp for Henderson and I have leaned on it before in this space, is Texas Rangers shortstop Corey Seager, the 2023 World Series MVP. This comp has been out there since before Henderson was drafted. As a tall, athletic, lefty-hitting shortstop with good pop, the comp was natural. When Henderson was drafted in 2019, Seager was already established as a top young talent who won the 2016 NL Rookie of the Year award with the Dodgers. To further compare these two, they were both drafted out of high school – Seager out of Concord, North Carolina (No. 18 overall in 2012) and Henderson from Selma, Alabama.

During the AL Division Series, Henderson was asked about often being compared to Seager.

“Growing up he was definitely a guy I looked at as a taller shortstop. To be able to compete with him is pretty cool,” he said.

In early September, in a very flattering article on the Orioles for Sports Illustrated, writer/broadcaster Tom Verducci wrote that “Henderson has hit more homers (23) already than any 22-and-under rookie shortstop except Cal Ripken (28), Corey Seager (26) and Troy Tulowitzki (24). He is Seager with a better glove and more speed,” wrote Verducci.

Gunnar would go on to hit 28 homers, matching Ripken for most by any 22-and-under rookie shortstop. He’s been compared to Ripken as well, another big shortstop. And another who won a ROY award.

By the way, during his age 22 season, Ripken was the 1983 AL MVP and the Orioles won the World Series.

But in being comped to Seager, Henderson is being mentioned alongside a player that now has that ROY award along with four All-Star appearances, three Silver Sluggers and two World Series MVP awards. And he is now reaching the prime of his career.

That is good company for the O’s youngster. In his early seasons, from 2015 through 2019 when he was between 21 and 25, Seager batted .294 with an .853 OPS. But just by OPS+, Seager’s 126 for those seasons is right about where Gunnar was last season at 125. And Gunnar’s .849 OPS his last 117 games are in line with Seager’s production during his early years.

Since the 2020 season through the 2023 year, his age 26-29 years, Seager has hit .290 with an OPS of .896 for an OPS+ of 142. His bat got better as you would expect and the O’s would love to see a similar bump up from Henderson with his stats. It’s certainly within reach for a player who could be a contender in the future for numerous MVP awards. Seager was second for that this year but has never won that award.

He did have a great postseason for the Rangers, batting .318 with an OPS of 1.133 with six doubles, six homers, 18 runs and 12 RBIs in 17 games. Henderson was no slouch either, going 6-for-12 in the ALDS.

If Henderson wins another MVO in 2024, he will be the first repeat winner since Adam Jones in 2011-12. Henderson was the fourth rookie to earn MVO after Gregg Olson in 1989, Rodrigo López in 2002 and Rutschman in 2022.

If he stays on a strong career path as seems likely, he could become the most productive player ever taken No. 42 in the draft, going by Wins Above Replacement.

Henderson played his first MLB game on Aug. 31, 2022, and already has amassed 7.1 bWAR. He produced 6.3 this season alone. In the history of the draft, the most career WAR for the No. 42 overall pick is 25.7 produced by pitcher Dennis Leonard selected by Kansas City in 1972. The second-most is 22.1 by outfielder Mookie Wilson of the Mets, selected in 1977. If Henderson produced exactly 6.2 WAR, the next three seasons he would tie Leonard for most career WAR by the end of the 2026 season. A long career at his current level and he’ll blow by everybody ever taken No. 42.