Anthony Santander: Rule 5 draft pick to sought-after free agent

An Oriole since the December 2016 Rule 5 draft and an Oriole now for parts of eight major league seasons, the 2025 season could open with outfielder Anthony Santander playing for another major league club for the first time.

He’s finally reached the service time to become a free agent and Santander’s chance to cash in on a 44-homer season is almost at hand.

Can the Orioles re-sign him and how far should they go to do just that? No doubt the team would love to have a middle-of-the-order bat back for their 2025 lineup. Not to mention a team leader who seems universally loved within the clubhouse. The fans admire and appreciate Santander greatly as well.

His loss would be big.

As usual, it may come down to years and price. If he gets a three-year deal, say in the $75 million range, would the O’s be in the hunt at those dollars? If the years and dollars go up from there which is possible, maybe very possible, how competitive will they be? Should they be?

The industry will find criticisms of this player due to his low on-base percentage or walk rate, but his 8.7 rate last year is just a tick above league average. He is also not a big strikeout guy either with a rate of 19.4, below MLB average.

His defensive metrics and stats like Defensive Runs Saved will be cited. Santander’s -7 DRS for this year put him behind over 100 American League right-fielders this season. In a related development, I am still not a believer in defensive metrics. I didn’t see Santander as Gold Glove caliber this year but I sure as heck didn’t see him behind 100 other fielders.

There were just eight AL right fielders with enough at-bats to qualify for league leaders. Santander was last among those eight in DRS. 

For the season on offense, he hit .235/.308/.506/.814 with 25 doubles, two triples, 44 homers, 91 runs and 102 RBIs.

He became the eighth Oriole to hit 40 or more and first since Mark Trumbo in 2016. He became the first Oriole with 100 or more RBIs since Jonathan Schoop drove in 105 in 2017.

Santander, who turns 30 Oct. 19, finished second in the AL and third in the majors in homers. He ranked ninth in the AL in RBIs, 11^th in slugging and 13^th in OPS.

He is sure to get a qualifying offer from the Orioles, which is expected to be set at $21.05 million. This is a one-year offer to the player from his current team that he can accept. But if he turns it down, which he surely will, the O’s would get a draft pick if he signs elsewhere.

Santander is certainly coming into his own as he nears 30 as a power bat and leader.

This is also in his favor when looking for a multi-year deal. He has played 152, 153 and 155 games the last three seasons. He stays on the field.

There are probably no recent direct comps for Santander in his current spot approaching free agency. But before the 2023 season, Boston signed outfielder Matasaka Yoshida, who is now 30, to a five-year deal for $90 million. After the 2022 season when his OPS fell to .654, the Cubs signed Cody Bellinger to a one-year deal for $12.5 million. When he rebounded to an OPS of .881 after 2023, the Cubs re-signed him to a three-year deal for $80 million.

If a team signed Santander to a four-year deal with increasing salaries of $22 million and then 25, 28 and 30 it would be a four-year deal for $105 million.

It will be fascinating to see where Santander lands and if the Orioles are in pursuit and to what levels of pursuit.