Checking in with Baseball America's J.J. Cooper on Rule 5 draft

For 14 straight years, the Orioles have made a pick in the major league phase of the Rule 5 draft. The streak may well be extended this Thursday during the latest Rule 5 draft.

Will the Orioles be looking for infielders after non-tendering Hanser Alberto and trading José Iglesias to the Los Angeles Angels? J.J. Cooper of Baseball America said if the O's want to add an infielder, the Rule 5 may be a good place to look.

"If you want infielders, I do think it's a pretty good Rule 5 class for infielders," Cooper said during a Zoom interview yesterday. "And a lot of different types of infielders. To me, Kyle Holder is a guy - first-round pick of the Yankees four years ago out of college - he's a really good glove. There are questions about the bat. If you say could he do a passable job of playing major league defense? Absolutely. Can he hit enough to where he is not just a complete zero at the plate? I think that's possible, too. So he is one that stands out to me."

Holder, 26, was taken No. 30 overall in 2015 by the Yankees out of the University of San Diego. In Double-A Trenton in 2019 over 112 games, he batted .265/.336/.405 with 25 doubles, three triples, nine homers and 40 RBIs. He made one Baseball America top 30 prospects list and was New York's No. 27 prospect in 2016.

"There are a whole lot of players that fit the more traditional model of a Rule 5," Cooper said. "There are usually not a lot of shortstops, though the Orioles did get Richie Martin a couple of years ago. Especially not shortstops that can hit. I would say this year there are more of the second baseman/third baseman who, they may be a little bit challenged defensively, but they can hit. There are a number of guys like that.

"Andy Ibanez and Omar Estevez, the Dodgers infielder and Ibanez (a) Rangers third baseman/second baseman is a little bit older with the past two years of Triple-A experience under his belt. Shervyen Newton, who is a toolsier player a little further away with the Mets, is another guy who kind of fits that group. There are a lot of them. I think we'll have about 15 infielders listed in our Rule 5 preview. There are more of those than there are outfielders that have a chance to hit for some average and some power."

Ibanez, 27, has 231 career starts at second base and 156 at third. In Triple-A in 2019, he hit .300/.375/.497 in 121 games. Texas signed him out of Cuba for $1.6 million and he was the youngest Cuban player on the 2013 World Baseball Classic team. Baseball America rated him as high as the Rangers' No. 5 prospect in 2017.

Estevez is also from Cuba and was signed for $6 million by the Dodgers in 2015. He is currently rated as the Dodgers' No. 18 prospect by Baseball America and No. 21 by MLBPipeline.com. In 2019 at Double-A, he batted .291/.352/.431in 83 games. He's made 240 career starts at short with 183 at second base.

Newton, from Tilburg, Netherlands, is 21 and rated as the Mets' No. 14 prospect currently by MLBPipeline.com. He gets good grades for arm (60) and power (55) but may be too far away for the Orioles to take a chance. After three years in rookie ball, he played in the low Single-A South Atlantic League in 2019 and hit just .209/.283/.330 in 109 games. He's made 152 career starts at short, 55 at second base and 39 at third.

If you are looking for a plus defender, Cooper has one player in mind.

"That is Holder to me. When he was drafted out of college, we had scouts that were putting a seven (70) on his glove," Cooper said of Holder, who has made 313 career starts at shortstop with 41 at second base and 25 at third. "Plus-plus glove. I think that might be a little bit rich, but there is little question this is a major league shortstop defensively. He has experience in the upper levels of the minors. He is one of that stands out and fits that criteria,"

I asked Cooper if the Orioles could lose any players in this Rule 5. And I mentioned a few names that are available Thursday in pitchers Zach Pop, Cody Sedlock, Brenan Hanifee and Gray Fenter, infielder Mason McCoy and catcher Brett Cumberland.

"The two that jump out there. I've thought about writing up McCoy. Utility infielder going back to his days at Iowa that could do that. At the same time we are talking about the Orioles possibly looking for middle infielders and he is a guy they did not protect in the middle infield. A lot of this is eye of the beholder. He kind of stands out that way," Cooper said. "Brett Cumberland has always been a catcher, probably more of that up-and-down catcher, a guy who develops like that. At the same time again, eye of the beholder. And catchers are really hard to stick in the Rule 5. Either he has to be your primary backup or you are carrying three catchers.

"Zach Pop is a guy, the injuries sometimes are a selling point for guys to get drafted. Anthony Santander had a shoulder injury and he was picked as an example of this. If you have a legitimate injury - not a made-up injury and teams have been punished for that - you can spend time on the IL recovering from that. You can even be sent to the minors to have a rehab assignment. You have to stay on the active MLB roster for 90 days. So if you spend half the season on the IL and the other half on the active roster, you've fulfilled that. A guy like Pop who has had an injury, maybe that makes him even more appealing to pick."

Cooper believes there is a decent chance there are fewer Rule 5 players taken in the major league phase this year than in 2019, when 11 were selected. Of course, there were no minor league games to watch this season.

"I've been covering the Rule 5 draft for more years that I would like to admit and I don't think there is any question this is the weirdest year I've ever covered," he said. "We have every one that was available in last year's Rule 5 with very few exceptions. And then you add another class to that, but they didn't get a chance to add to their resumes this year.

"This year, we have guys that were supposed to go to high-A or Double-A in 2020 and they spent the year at home instead. Are there teams out there that are willing to take them and stash them on the their roster all year? Maybe. Do we even know what the makeup of the MLB active roster will be? No, we don't. So there are a lot of unknowns there. It does make for a crazy, unpredictable Rule 5 draft."

Cooper has also been providing outstanding coverage of the minor league situation and which teams will make the final list of 120 full-season teams. He believes there could be resolution on that this week.

Click here for Cooper's latest Rule 5 preview and here for a link to his coverage of the Major League Baseball-Minor League Baseball talks (subscription may be required).

Here is a look at our entire interview via Zoom.