Cruz and Markakis contracts called among worst deals of the offseason
We've spent much time this winter discussing and debating the Orioles' losses from last season of Nick Markakis, Nelson Cruz and Andrew Miller.
At least according to one writer, the signings of Markakis and Cruz were among the four worst moves by all teams this winter. The Braves signed Markakis to a four-year deal worth $44 million and the Mariners signed Cruz to a four-year deal worth $58 million.
Dave Cameron of FanGraphs ranks these as the four worst moves of the offseason:
1 - Padres acquire Matt Kemp and Tim Federowicz
2 - Braves sign Markakis
3 - Nationals sign Max Scherzer
4 - Mariners sign Cruz
Of the Markakis deal he writes:
This deal just doesn't make sense for so many reasons. The Braves spent the winter blowing up their roster, admitting that they're likely non-contenders for the next several seasons, and are going to attempt to rebuild a winner by the time their new stadium opens in 2017. So why, in the middle of going young, would you outbid win-now teams for the services of a mediocre low-ceiling outfielder who, by the way, happens to need neck surgery? Markakis fits as the 6th or 7th best position player on a winning team, the kind of solid role player that helps fill a hole, but there's no reason for a rebuilding club to win an auction for his services. The Braves would have been better off betting on an upside play, going with a short-term commitment that might land them a guy they could flip at the deadline for more young talent. Markakis' deal is going to make him difficult to ever trade for value, so instead, they're just going to be stuck with a declining veteran taking up a significant amount of the payroll.
Of the Cruz deal he writes:
Yes, Nelson Cruz had a great year in 2014, and if he does anything close to what he did in Baltimore, the Mariners will be fine with this deal. But his pre-Baltimore track record is filled with mediocrity, and there is no worse place in baseball for an aging right-handed slugger than Safeco Field. Perhaps he'll give the Mariners enough production to justify the salary for 2015, and maybe even for 2016 if they're lucky, but the last two years of this deal are likely going to be a disaster, and there just isn't enough value at the front to make up for it. Seattle decided they wanted a very specific skillset, except that skillset isn't worth what it costs on the open market. Now, they're left to hope that Cruz can keep having career years in his mid-30s rather than reverting back to the average (or below average) player that his track record suggests.
I don't completely agree with either assesment or see either deal quite as harshly as Cameron, but both teams did gamble when you consider the length and total dollars here. That is why the Orioles, in the phrasing of some fans "let them go" or "let them walk."
It wasn't about not realizing what they brought to the team, which was a lot of course. It was about the future commitment that would be required to keep them. In both cases I say the clubs overpaid for these players.
By the way, since I know you will ask, Cameron did not have the Ubaldo Jimenez contract among his 10 worst deals of last winter. Of course, Jimenez is trying to make that deal look better and that process has begun in Sarasota.
Do you agree with Cameron? Cruz provided the Orioles with 40 homers last year, and Markakis was a leader and good for this team for a long time. He was an O's draft pick and it was tough for many fans to see him go.
But in the end, considering the cost of the players in both contract length and dollars, did the Orioles do the right thing by moving on without them?
This deal just doesn't make sense for so many reasons. The Braves spent the winter blowing up their roster, admitting that they're likely non-contenders for the next several seasons, and are going to attempt to rebuild a winner by the time their new stadium opens in 2017. So why, in the middle of going young, would you outbid win-now teams for the services of a mediocre low-ceiling outfielder who, by the way, happens to need neck surgery? Markakis fits as the 6th or 7th best position player on a winning team, the kind of solid role player that helps fill a hole, but there's no reason for a rebuilding club to win an auction for his services. The Braves would have been better off betting on an upside play, going with a short-term commitment that might land them a guy they could flip at the deadline for more young talent. Markakis' deal is going to make him difficult to ever trade for value, so instead, they're just going to be stuck with a declining veteran taking up a significant amount of the payroll.
Of the Cruz deal he writes:
Yes, Nelson Cruz had a great year in 2014, and if he does anything close to what he did in Baltimore, the Mariners will be fine with this deal. But his pre-Baltimore track record is filled with mediocrity, and there is no worse place in baseball for an aging right-handed slugger than Safeco Field. Perhaps he'll give the Mariners enough production to justify the salary for 2015, and maybe even for 2016 if they're lucky, but the last two years of this deal are likely going to be a disaster, and there just isn't enough value at the front to make up for it. Seattle decided they wanted a very specific skillset, except that skillset isn't worth what it costs on the open market. Now, they're left to hope that Cruz can keep having career years in his mid-30s rather than reverting back to the average (or below average) player that his track record suggests.
I don't completely agree with either assesment or see either deal quite as harshly as Cameron, but both teams did gamble when you consider the length and total dollars here. That is why the Orioles, in the phrasing of some fans "let them go" or "let them walk."
It wasn't about not realizing what they brought to the team, which was a lot of course. It was about the future commitment that would be required to keep them. In both cases I say the clubs overpaid for these players.
By the way, since I know you will ask, Cameron did not have the Ubaldo Jimenez contract among his 10 worst deals of last winter. Of course, Jimenez is trying to make that deal look better and that process has begun in Sarasota.
Do you agree with Cameron? Cruz provided the Orioles with 40 homers last year, and Markakis was a leader and good for this team for a long time. He was an O's draft pick and it was tough for many fans to see him go.
But in the end, considering the cost of the players in both contract length and dollars, did the Orioles do the right thing by moving on without them?
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