Domenic Vadala: Should the Orioles buy or stand pat?

If you read my column on Birds Watcher, perhaps you've noticed that we've started looking toward the trade deadline. This year, the Orioles do in a way find themselves in a bit of a dilemma. I'm not one of those folks suggesting that the Orioles should consider selling off because "they aren't good enough" or something like that. But in my view the real dilemma is "buy or stand pat?"

The Orioles are a contending team, so let's just dismiss the notion of selling right now. So that leaves buying or standing pat. The reasons for buying are obvious. The Orioles could acquire a player who could ultimately put them over the top in the division and so forth. And when you simply make it to October, all bets are off.

But there could also be an argument for in effect doing nothing or perhaps making a low-level trade. The Orioles, as we know, have a plethora of pending free agents - including Chris Davis, Matt Wieters, and others. What ends up happening if in fact the Orioles are able to retain ... none of them?

That's your doomsday scenario in a sense. Regardless of what happens this year, the Orioles could go from contender to "shades of 1998-2011" really quickly. (And that could be further compounded if some of those players remain in the American League East, which I can all but guarantee some will.) But either way, I suspect the Birds won't be able to keep all of those players, so we will see some new faces in 2016.

Thus, the argument for leaving the team as it is and in essence "waiting and seeing" is simply that the farm system might not be able to afford losing valuable prospects - because someone like Christian Walker or Trey Mancini may be the starting first baseman next year. Dariel Alvarez could start in right, Henry Urrutia in left and so forth. The Orioles might need these guys in the organization just to field a semi-competitive team next year.

That's a pretty compelling argument if you think about. However, while I made the argument, I'm not willing to accept it. My personal opinion is that the O's need to swing some type of trade to better themselves here and now. That might be for someone like Justin Upton, or someone else of that like. However for some of the same reasons as I stated, the O's need to go for it.

Remember what I said above? If you get into October all bets are off, right? So trades shouldn't be made with the expectation of winning the World Series - necessarily. They should be made with the hope and belief that the acquired player will help get you over the hump and into October. If you can simply get to the postseason, you never know what can happen. Look at both Kansas City and San Francisco last year.

But here's the other thing - I mentioned the fact that the O's would have seven free agents after the season, along with the fact that they won't want to deplete the farm system. It's very true that next season might become a challenge if the Birds have to give up some major prospects this summer. But keep in mind that the Orioles will presumably be making qualifying offers to many of those free agents. In doing that, they will also get some supplemental draft picks back next year if those players walk. That will help to restock the farm system.

So the mystery burns as to what the Orioles will do. This is where we often start hearing about how it's shortsighted to rent players in a sense, which is what the Orioles would be doing if they traded for someone like Justin Upton. It's also what they did last year when they traded Eduardo Rodriguez to Boston for Andrew Miller.

I said at that time and still say that the Miller trade was a good move for the Orioles last year. And the fact is that we have no way of knowing what would have happened had that deal not gone down. But this is why making trades in season is akin to rolling the dice.

The deadline for waiver trades is August 31. As he's a guy who looks for value, that's where Dan Duquette could really shine. At the end of the day, I suspect that the division will be won or lost in July or August. The O's want to ensure that they're on the right side of history.

Domenic Vadala blogs about the Orioles at Birds Watcher, and his opinions appear here as part of MASNsports.com's season-long initiative of welcoming guest bloggers to our pages. Follow him on Twitter: @DomenicVadala. All opinions expressed are those of the guest bloggers, who are not employed by MASNsports.com but are just as passionate about their baseball as our roster of writers.