ESPN analysts say Kevin Gausman will be Orioles' X-factor this year

When ESPN's cameras and reporters were in Sarasota, Fla., to visit Orioles spring training earlier this week, they discussed which one player could be the X-factor for the club this year.

Analysts Curt Schilling and Buster Olney had the same answer: Kevin Gausman.

They feel the 24-year-old right-hander with 25 career big league starts and 161 innings under his belt could take a nice step forward this year - one that could lead to his becoming a top-of-the-rotation starter.

"I like Kevin Gausman to take that next step," Schilling said. "Not just one physically, but one mentally. Your opening day starter is generally your No. 1, but who is your Game 1 (playoff) starter? Who is your wild card game guy? At 22, Kevin Gausman is ready to take that next step."

Gausman went 7-7 with a 3.57 ERA in 20 starts last season. In 2013, he had three separate major league stints. In 2014, he had six stints in the big leagues, including three that lasted two days or less.

Now, maybe he will be here to stay with less movement on the Norfolk-Baltimore shuttle helping lead toward improving his game.

Olney is confident that can happen.

"I talked to Caleb Joseph and he talked about the extroardinary movement on his fastball, the development of his splitter and his mound presence," Olney said. "He talked about, 'Don't let the hitters know what you're feeling.' He believes Kevin Gausman gives nothing away. He believes he has the makeup to be a No. 1."

Gausman threw 47 2/3 innings in the majors in 2013 and 113 1/3 last season. He improved in most stat categories from one year to the next.

ERA: From 5.66 to 3.57
FIP: From 3.99 to 3.41
Hits per nine innings: From 9.6 to 8.8
Homers per nine innings: From 1.5 to 0.6

He was not trying to prove my theory that strikeouts for a pitcher can be somewhat overrated, but as his strikeout-to-walk ratio got worse last season (from 3.77 to 2.32), his overall game got better.

Gausman struck out an impressive 9.3 batters for every nine innings in 2013, but that number was down to 7.0 last season.

At FanFest I asked Gausman if he feels this will be the year he's finally off the Norfolk-Baltimore shuttle.

"I don't know. I guess we'll find out," he said. "I feel confident in what I did last year and felt like I made some good strides. You want to get better as the year goes on and I definitely felt like I did."

The Orioles rotation was good last season. It should be again and good pitching keeps you in games. The Orioles ranked fifth in the American League and were second among AL East teams with a 3.61 rotation ERA in 2014.

In the second half, the Orioles had a very strong 2.94 starting pitching ERA. In an AL East lacking ace pitchers right now, the O's rotation depth could help them stay atop the division this year.

And if Gausman takes a step forward, as the ESPN analysts feel he can, the Orioles' chances to win the AL East would get a lot better.

"This is a team that has the deepest pitching staff in the American League East," Olney said.