Opposite dugout: Blue Jays boast big bats, but can they pitch well enough to win?

blue-jays-logo.jpgManager: John Gibbons (8th season)

Record: 16-16

Last 10 games: 6-4

Who to watch: 3B Josh Donaldson (.317/.379/.578 with 7 HR and 21 RBIs), C Russell Martin (.293/.396/.609 with 7 HR and 10 RBIs), 21B Devon Travis (.288 with 7 HR and 25 RBIs), RF/DH Jose Bautista (5 HR and 18 RBIs), 1B Edwin Encarnacion (5 HR and 18 RBIs), RHP Aaron Sanchez (3-2, 3.62 ERA)

Season series vs. Orioles: 5-1

Pitching probables:

May 11: RHP Marco Estrada vs. RHP Ubaldo Jimenez, 7:05 p.m., MASN
May 12: LHP Mark Buehrle vs. RHP Chris Tillman, 7:05 p.m., MASN
May 13: RHP Aaron Sanchez vs RHP Miguel Gonzalez, 7:05 p.m., MASN2


Inside the Blue Jays:

There's no way around it: The Blue Jays are a dangerous offensive club. Look at where they rank in the major offensive categories in the American League - first in runs (172), fourth in homers (37), second in slugging (.436) - and it's easy to see they can hit with the best of them. But consider where Toronto would be if two of its biggest bats - first baseman Edwin Encarnacion and right fielder Jose Bautista - were pulling more of the weight. Encarnacion is off to a slow start, hitting just .242 with five homers. Bautista, who is batting .220 with five home runs, injured his shoulder trying to throw Baltimore's Delmon Young out from right field when the teams played at Rogers Centre last month, and has been restricted to designated hitter duty since. There's talk that Bautista may be ready to return to the outfield by mid-week, but we'll see if that's legit or just posturing by general manager Alex Anthopoulos.

So where are the Jays getting their production? Three offseason acquisitions - third baseman Josh Donaldson, catcher Russell Martin and second baseman Devon Travis - have been doing the heavy lifting, helping to compensate for the sluggishness out of Bautista and Encarnacion. Donaldson is 11-for-35 (.314) in May and has posted a .400 on-base percentage. Martin has four homers in his past seven games and is slashing .484/.469/1.000 this month. Travis has cooled off after hitting .325 in April, but still has six RBIs in eight May games.

If it seems like Bautista and Donaldson are Orioles killers, it's merely a mirage. While he has 21 homers in his career against Baltimore, the team where he got his major league start as a Rule 5 pick in 2004, Bautista is a career .194 hitter with 10 homers at Camden Yards. Donaldson hits O's pitchers at a .294 clip and has driven in 22 in 21 games, but is only a .176 hitter at Camden Yards. Encarnacion has been far more damaging to the Birds: a .266 average with 26 homers and 60 RBIs in 97 career games against the O's, with a .301/.358/.570 slash line, 12 homers and 30 RBIs in 48 games in Baltimore. There was plenty of unpleasantness (read: hit batters and retaliation) when these teams last met in Toronto, and Donaldson has history with O's third baseman Manny Machado dating from his days in Oakland, so pay close attention when Baltimore pitchers try to go up and in or dominate inside against the Blue Jays sluggers.

Toronto has had its way with the Orioles this season, winning five of the six games played between the teams, including a crowd-crushing 12-5 romp in Baltimore's home opener on April 11. Even with their success against the black and orange, the Blue Jays have been nothing more than a middling club. Injuries to shortstop Jose Reyes, who is on the disabled list with a cracked rib, and left fielder Michael Saunders, who returned April 24 after a left knee injury sustained in spring training, haven't helped. But John Gibbons' crew always has the potential to reel off a significant winning streak, as long as the pitching cooperates.

As good as the hitting has been, the pitching has struggled, not able to make hay out of the top run support in the majors. Most of the blame falls on veterans who haven't yet gotten in gear, but there's always a worry that some of Toronto's wily arms will be on their last legs, not uncommon when your rotation includes 40-year-old knuckleballer R.A. Dickey and 36-year-old soft-tossing lefty Mark Buehrle. That means Toronto asks a lot of its younger starting pitchers, and they've not delivered consistent results. Gibbons has also changed closers twice, replacing Maryland product Brett Cecil in the season's first week with 20-year-old rookie Miguel Castro, then reinserting Cecil in late May.

Monday starter Marco Estrada was expected to compete for a rotation spot when the Blue Jays acquired him from the Brewers in a straight-up exchange for first baseman Adam Lind in the offseason. But a 9.39 ERA in Grapefruit League games got him shuffled off to the bullpen, where the right-hander posted an 0.84 ERA before making his first start on May 5. In that outing, he allowed five runs (four earned) on eight hits over 4 2/3 innings. Estrada may need a couple of outings to get his arm stretched out, but he's no stranger to starting, having made 69 starts for the Brewers over the past four seasons. In that role, he's 22-21 with a 4.24 ERA, 1.172 WHIP and .245 batting average against in 72 career games. That's not too shabby for a back-of-the-rotation arm, but it remains to see how his stuff will play in the American League East. He's got a lifetime 4.50 ERA in two games against the Orioles, and has yielded a run in one career inning pitched at Camden Yards. May hasn't been kind to Estrada, who is 5-8 with a 5.65 ERA in 32 games, including 19 starts.

Buehrle notched his 200th career victory in the lopsided win over the Orioles on April 11, but his peripheral numbers suggest the veteran lefty can be hit. When a left-handed pitcher - even a guy whose fastball tops out around 84 mph - gets torched by lefty swingers to a .390 tune in the first month of a season, that's cause for alarm (right-handers are hitting Buehrle at a .363 clip). He's also allowed six homers in 33 innings pitched, after surrendering only 15 in 202 innings in 2014. If it's warm and humid during his Tuesday night start at Camden Yards, watch out for flying objects in the left field stands. He went at least six innings in his first three starts this season, but hasn't gotten to the sixth since and even with the win over the Orioles in their home opener, Buehrle is only 1-2 with an 8.44 road ERA this year. Lifetime against Baltimore, he's 10-10 with a 3.58 ERA in 26 games (24 starts), and 4-5 with a 4.13 ERA in 12 games (11 starts) at Camden Yards.

For a time in spring training, there was talk that Wednesday's starter, rookie righty Aaron Sanchez, might end up closing games for the Blue Jays because of his fearlessness and plus fastball. But he wound up pitching his way into the rotation and is experiencing the ups and downs you might expect from a 22-year-old who relies way too much on a fastball that tops out in the mid-90s. Control has been an issue, and Sanchez's 25 walks are among the league leaders, but he's coming off his best start of the season, seven shutout innings of two-hit ball against the Red Sox on May 8. He's dominating right-hander hitters, who are batting only .190 against him, and struggling versus lefty swingers, who have a .290 mark. But Sanchez seems to know how to bear down and find his good stuff when it matters: He's got only a .245 average against in high-leverage situations. He's 1-1 with a 5.19 ERA against the Orioles this year, 1-1 with a 4.73 ERA in five games (two starts) against Baltimore in his career and 0-1 with a 6.23 ERA in two games (one start) at Camden Yards.




O's turn to longball to back Chen and beat Yankees...
Strasburg reveals discomfort was in ankle not shou...
 

By accepting you will be accessing a service provided by a third-party external to https://www.masnsports.com/