Ryan Romano: The Orioles' incredible home run avoidance

Heading into the 2016 season, most projection systems didn't think very highly of the Orioles' pitching staff. Baseball Prospectus predicted they would allow 4.76 runs per game, which would rank last in the major leagues. FanGraphs had them at 4.71 runs allowed per game, better than only the Colorado Rockies. Many pundits echoed that pessimism: Sports Illustrated's Jay Jaffe wrote that "even in a division that's decidedly short on top-shelf starting pitching, the Orioles' rotation scares nobody," and The Baltimore Sun's Eduardo Encina argued that "concern about the team's starting pitching became more glaring during exhibition games." Despite its high-caliber bullpen, the team wouldn't be able to overcome its shaky rotation, the narrative went. Overall, the team would probably not fare too well on the pitching side of things.

We're about one-fifth of the way through the season, and all of those projections seem pretty wrong. The Orioles have allowed an average of 3.80 runs per game thus far, nearly a full run below the expectations of both BP and FG. The relievers have excelled, and as my colleague Andrew Stetka discussed yesterday, the starters have soared past the doubters. But the Orioles have accomplished this in an unusual manner. They haven't struck out a ton of batters, pounded the zone to avoid walks, or suppressed hits to keep their batting average down. Instead, they've limited home runs to an unbelievable extent. Out of the 1,115 players to bat against Baltimore in 2016, a mere 19 have knocked the ball out of the park -- a miniscule 1.7 percent. That ranks second in the major leagues, behind the godlike arms of the New York Mets.

As anyone who's followed the Orioles in recent years can testify, this team usually gives up a lot of home runs. From David Hernandez floundering as a rookie in 2009, to "Sweaty" Freddy Garcia serving up meatball after meatball in 2013, to Miguel Gonzalez utterly losing his command in 2015, far too many pitchers have taken the mound and blown up for Baltimore. So how can the Orioles compare to the likes of Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom? Do they stand any chance of sustaining this?

The major factor going against the Orioles has been their home ballpark. Camden Yards has a cozier outfield than most stadiums, which doesn't tend to suit pitchers. According to FanGraphs' data on park factors, OPACY ranked fifth in baseball in terms of homer-friendliness last season. Since the stadium opened in 1992, this feature has generally harmed Orioles pitchers. They've ranked in the top half of the majors in home run rate in just four years -- 1997, 1998, 2004, and 2007. For comparison's sake: In that same span, they've finished dead last in the majors four times as well (2006, 2009, 2011, and 2013). Its many pleasant amenities and retro structure notwithstanding, Camden Yards hasn't really worked well when it comes to pitching. Pitching half their games in this sandbox will probably lead to a lot more homers for the Orioles.

With that said, Baltimore has done several things right to dodge the long ball in 2016. The O's have tallied a ground ball rate of 46.1 percent, the highest team clip since FanGraphs began tracking batted balls in 2002. They've also fanned 20.8 percent of the batters they've faced, which beats every other iteration of the club since 1992. The recipe for success in a launching pad is twofold: Don't let the opposition put the ball in play, and keep the ball on the ground when they do. If the Orioles can satisfy both of these conditions, they might continue to prosper.

All in all, it's pretty clear that the Orioles' home run rate will regress from here on out. No matter what they do, Camden Yards will stick around to haunt them; plus, they still have to play 10 games in both Rogers Centre and Yankee Stadium. With that said, four-baggers won't necessarily doom Baltimore. They could improve their strikeout rate further, or get more grounders. The projections don't think that will happen, but they haven't worked out well to this point -- perhaps their inaccuracy will persist. While staying in the no-homers club would be nice, any way that the O's can put up donuts is fine by me.

Ryan Romano blogs about the Orioles for Camden Depot. Follow the blog on Twitter: @CamdenDepot. His thoughts on the O's appear here as part of MASNsports.com's continuing commitment to welcome guest bloggers to our little corner of cyberspace. All opinions expressed are those of the guest bloggers, who are not employed by MASNsports.com but are just as passionate about their baseball as our roster of writers.