Some free agent contracts just may be too risky

Any free agent contract for a pitcher can be risky. The bigger the contract, the riskier. But two current free agent pitchers present greater risk than some others.

That is according to Dave Cameron on FanGraphs in his listing of 2018 free agent landmines. It is not that Cameron sees the pitchers in question as poor pitchers. But in relation to the contracts they are likely to get, he sees them as risky to sign at those prices.

Last year, Cameron listed Mark Trumbo as his No. 1 free agent to avoid. Keep in mind that part of his reasoning was the expected contract for Trumbo heading into free agency this time last year. In the end, Trumbo didn't get what was predicted: four years and $66 million by Cameron and four years and $60 million by MLBTradeRumors.com, which ranked Trumbo as the No. 8 free agent last year. On Jan. 20, the Orioles re-signed Trumbo to a three-year deal worth $37.5 million that paid him $11.5 in 2017 and is scheduled to pay him $12.5 million and 13.5 million over the next two seasons.

Trumbo also saw his market become greatly depressed when he turned down the qualifying offer, meaning clubs would lose a high draft pick to sign him. That was not the case for one team, the Orioles, who did not lose a pick for bringing him back.

The steamer projection for Trumbo in 2017 was for a slash line of .254/.314/.480, but he came in under even that modest projection. He hit .234/.289/.397 and his homers dropped from 47 to 23 and RBIs from 108 to 65. The Orioles' Trey Mancini hit so well that he could have replaced Trumbo in the lineup easily. Cameron's No. 1 pick last year of Trumbo looks good now, even if the Orioles got him for a lot less money than originally projected. Trumbo still has two more years to make his re-signing look better.

As for the current group of free agents, ranking most risky to least risky in Cameron's top five, he ranks it this way: Eric Hosmer, Greg Holland, Lance Lynn, Eduardo Núñez and Andrew Cashner.

So two pitchers the Orioles figure to have interest in could be risky signs, Cameron believes. Cashner went 11-11 with a 3.40 ERA for Texas in 28 starts in 2016. He finished ninth in the AL in ERA and was seventh in groundball rate among starters. But his ERA was 4.34 in 2015 and 5.25 in 2016.

Cameron feels teams should pass on a possible contract of two years and $20 million. MLBTradeRumors.com ranked Casher as the No. 27 free agent in this class and projected he would sign for two years and $20 million with Oakland.

Cashner's strikeout rate of 4.6 per nine innings last year was way down from previous seasons. Part of his 2017 success that perhaps he can't repeat is a .170 batting average against he allowed with runners in scoring position. That led the major leagues. If he loses effectiveness even a little bit in those situations, that ERA could rise rapidly and Cashner could turn out indeed to be a risky sign.

Meanwhile Cameron projects Lynn for three years and $48 million, which seems reasonable for most teams, including the Orioles. But Lynn wants much more than that, per various reports. Cameron writes some project Lynn to get as much as $75 million.

"If he gets anywhere near those prices, I want no part of his deal, especially with a TJ surgery on the resume," Cameron writes. "Lynn is a solid pitcher whom most teams could use in their rotation, but if he wants to get paid like a frontline guy, run away."

Do you agree that Cashner and Lynn are risky signs at the projected prices? Which free agent pitchers would be more worth their projected contracts?