The non-tender date approaches for the Orioles

The deadline for teams to offer arbitration eligible players contracts for 2021 is tomorrow night at 8 p.m. Eastern time. The Orioles have some decisions to make with seven remaining arbitration-eligible players.

Let's take a look at them in alphabetical order and list the three projected salaries that MLBTradeRumors.com has listed after the shortened 60-game 2020 season. They came to the three figures this way:

The first model dealt only with the stats from the 60-game season. The second extrapolated counting stats to totals for 162 games. So a player that hit 14 homers last summer would see that multiplied by 2.7, as 60 times 2.7 is 162. So a 14-homer season would turn into a 37.8-homer season, rounded up to 38. In the third model, for non-first-time-eligible players, they found the raise they would get for 162 games and then gave them a 37 percent raise. That is because 60 games is 37 percent of a full 162.

Got all of that? I'm not sure I do either, but everything has been strange about looking at a 60-game season when we are used to so many more games.

Hanser Alberto - $2.3 million, $4.1 million, $2.6 million

The increases projected here are probably going to spell trouble for Alberto's bid to avoid a non-tender. Alberto, who was waived by four teams, including the Orioles, before the 2019 season, wound up batting .305/.329/.422/.751 for the Orioles that year with an OPS+ of 98. He hit 12 homers and drove in 51. His batting average ranked eighth-best in the AL and 16th in the major leagues. But the numbers took a hit last summer. He batted .283/.306/.393/.698 with three homers, 22 RBIs and an OPS+ of 91.

On Aug. 15, Alberto was raking, batting .345 with a .910 OPS. But in his last 34 games, those numbers dropped to .242/.558. The power production, what little there was, really fell off. Alberto hit lefties well again last year, batting .375 after hitting .393 in 2019. For a player that is not a plus runner or defender, will that be enough to keep him on the roster?

Shawn Armstrong - $800,00, $1 million, $800,000

If Armstrong is going to get around $1 million, I would have a hard time cutting him loose over that amount. He took a big leap forward last season before a lower back injury sidelined him. He went 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA and 0.800 WHIP in 15 innings. He used his cutter 46 percent, a career high, and fanned 14 with just three walks. He stranded 11 of 13 inherited runners.

In this interview at the first spring training in February, Armstrong detailed to me some changes he made with the pitching coaches at a minicamp in January. They changed the shape of some of his pitches and even pointed out ways he may have been tipping pitches. Did Armstrong pitch better last year because of that January work? If the team feels that answer is yes, he should get tendered a contract.

Trey Mancini - $4.8 million, $4.8 million, $4.8 million

There is little drama coming here; the team will tender Mancini a contract. He's a middle-of-the-order hitter and a team leader. They'll welcome him back with open arms and wait to see how he holds up over the year. If the production is similar to what he showed during his 2019 Most Valuable Oriole season, that money will be well spent.

Yolmer Sánchez - no salary projections

MLBTradeRumors.com does not list Sanchez among those that are arbitration-eligible but he was last year and is this year, too. So there are no salary projections for the 2019 Gold Glove winner at second base with the White Sox.

So no idea what Sanchez could command via arbitration, but this time last year, one projection had him up for $6.2 million when the White Sox non-tendered him last December. That led him to sign a minor league deal with the Giants, but he never played a single game in the bigs for them in 2020. He actually asked for his release and got it, and wound up back with Chicago to end the year, going 5-for-16 (.313) in 11 games. The Orioles acquired him on waivers in October.

I will take a wild guess that the club has been making a run at signing him for something they deem reasonable. And if that doesn't happen by Wednesday night, they non-tender him.

Anthony Santander - $1.7 million, $3 million, $1.7 million

He's going to avoid a non-tender situation, just like Mancini. Santander succeeded Mancini as the 2020 Most Valuable Oriole and is going to be paired with Mancini, Ryan Mountcastle and others in the middle of the Baltimore order. As a Gold Glove finalist, Santander is also providing some defensive value for the club. Players that can help you on offense and defense at this price are clearly keepers.

Pedro Severino - $1.4 million, $2.3 million, $1.4 million

Severino spent part of the 2020 season looking like an All-Star, but looked like a candidate to be non-tendered by the end of it. He batted .250/.322/.388/.710 in 178 plate appearances. In 2019, in 341 plate appearances, he batted .249/.321/.420/.740. Severino posted an OPS+ of 95 each year.

But his late slump was a big one. In the 2020 season's first 24 games, he batted .333/.413/.568/.981 with five homers and 20 RBIs. In his last 24 games, he hit .165/.224/.203/.426 with no homers and one RBI. He hit .157 in September, was 1-for-28 in his last eight games and 0-for-19 with runners in scoring position over his last 21 games. He was chasing pitches big time and having issues on defense as well. How much weight will the O's put on that falloff for Severino?

Pat Valaika - $1.1 million, $1.9 million, $1.1 million

If the O's see Valaika as only a reserve and utility type of player, those figures may simply be too pricey. If they believe he'll at least platoon at one or more infield spots, or have a decent chance to earn significant playing time, they could bring him back. There also is the option of non-tendering him, making him a free agent and trying to bring him back for less. But then they don't control what other teams might offer. Seven of his eight homers came in the seventh inning or later, tied for the most in the majors. He had some big hits for the club. He also made starts at five positions with 15 at shortstop, eight at first and second base, four at third base and three in left field. He can pinch-hit and he finished strong, batting .323 in September. This could be a tough call.

I'll guess that Mancini, Santander and Armstrong get tendered and that the non-tenders will be Sánchez, Severino. Alberto and Valaika.

Any non-tender players are then removed from the 40-man roster, which would open a roster spot or spots to add a Rule 5 pick and/or the ability to sign any other non-tendered players. The market is expected to be flooded with them come tomorrow night.