Their time is now: Gausman, Bundy begin year atop rotation

Former Orioles general manager Andy MacPhail might approve. He said to "grow the arms." Starting next week, minus Chris Tillman right now, two Orioles first-round draft picks will head up their starting rotation.

The Orioles made Dylan Bundy the fourth-overall pick in the 2011 First-Year Player Draft. A year later, they selected Kevin Gausman, also with the fourth pick. With Gausman under team control through 2020 and Bundy through 2021, this pair of young guns could head up future rotations for at least the next four seasons.

A check of projected rotations at RosterResource.com shows that just six teams in the majors currently have two or more of their original first-round draft picks in season-opening rotations:

* Colorado (3): Jon Gray, Tyler Anderson, Kyle Freeland
* St. Louis (2): Lance Lynn, Michael Wacha
* Pittsburgh (2): Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon
* San Francisco (2): Madison Bumgarner, Matt Cain
* Toronto (2): Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez
* Baltimore (2): Gausman, Bundy

If you go through the rotations, producing home-grown starting pitchers is tougher than you may think. For instance, two of the World Series favorites, the Chicago Cubs and Boston Red Sox, have a combined zero home-grown starters beginning the year. All 10 of those projected starters were acquired from outside their organizations.

Gausman and Bundy have the look of pitchers ready to handle the pressure of pitching at the top of a rotation. If and when Tillman can get healthy and back in games, the Orioles should have a solid 1-2-3 to start their rotation.

We know among national analysts that the Orioles rotation is not well-regarded and is one reason for the constant predictions of a poor year. But we also know that the 2016 second-half rotation ERA - when Gausman pitched better and Bundy was moved into the rotation - was 4.24. That doesn't sound great, but 4.24 last season for the full year would have ranked fourth-best in the American League behind Toronto at 3.64, Cleveland at 4.08 and Boston at 4.22. The Orioles' number for the year of 4.72 ranked 13th in the AL.

The 26-year-old Gausman makes his first opening day start on Monday against Toronto. He went 9-12 with a 3.61 ERA in 30 starts and 179 2/3 innings in 2016. But it was the second half where Gausman really elevated his pitching, going 8-6 with a 3.10 ERA.

Between Aug. 23 and Sept. 14, Gausman pitched four scoreless starts in five games, going 4-0 with an ERA of 0.82. He pitched the Orioles to a victory in Game 162 at New York to get them into the playoffs. He led O's starters in ERA, innings, WHIP, K/9 and BB/9.

Bundy was moved into the rotation in the second half and went 4-2 with a 2.76 ERA over his first six starts. He allowed five runs in four of his last eight starts, going 4-3 with an ERA of 6.00 as he likely tired somewhat. But we saw enough evidence to see why Bundy was a top-rated prospect for years, even as he dealt with elbow surgery and shoulder issues.

Bundy picked up his first major league win on May 27 at Cleveland. From July 22 to Aug. 12, he ranked tied for first in wins (four) and fifth in strikeouts (32) among all major league pitchers. As a starter, he allowed a batting average against of just .231 and he fanned 9.0 per nine innings.

One thing we should not forget about Bundy is this - he has had major league success with very little experience on the farm due to his injuries. Bundy has never pitched at the Triple-A level, has thrown just 38 2/3 career innings at Double-A and just 167 minor league innings in his life.

Are the Orioles asking too much from Gausman and Bundy? Or has their time to shine truly arrived?

Player over-unders: Just for fun, here are some Oriole players' over-unders provided by the online sportsbook Bovada.

Manny Machado
Homers: 33 1/2
RBIs: 90 1/2
Batting average: .290
Runs: 101 1/2

Chris Davis
Homers: 37 1/2
RBIs: 95 1/2

Adam Jones
Homers: 26 1/2
RBIs: 84 1/2
Batting average: .270

Mark Trumbo
Homers: 32 1/2
RBIs: 90 1/2

Jonathan Schoop
Homers: 23 1/2

Zach Britton
Saves: 38 1/2