When signing international amateurs, your mileage may vary

How much would a big league team pay to sign an amateur who becomes a future Most Valuable Player candidate?

Many millions, no doubt. But when you sign a young talent, no one can know for sure what will happen many years later. When signing teenagers out of high school and international amateurs at 16 and 17, teams have to project down the road. How big will that player grow to be physically? Does he have the work ethic needed to become a big league regular? Will injuries cause issues?

For the Cleveland Indians, the signing of José Ramírez for a low-dollar amount out of the Dominican Republic at 17 has paid off many, many times over. During the 2009 season they worked out several youngsters at their Dominican facility, and on Nov. 26, 2009, which was Thanksgiving Day that year, he officially signed.

The signing was noted yesterday by MLBTradeRumors.com as they looked back at transactions announced on Thanksgiving.

Over the years, scouts and front office officials have told me that when it comes to international players and signing bonuses, all bets are off, so to speak.

There are numerous examples of the million-dollar signings not working out while plenty smaller-dollar signings produced major talent. Why would this be the case? Mostly because these players sign at 16 and 17. How can we truly know what the next four or five years will hold for players that young? When you draft a top college player and sign him for big money, at least you've seen him play for a couple of seasons at the collegiate level, and his maturity and development at 21 or 22 is much more advanced. You know a lot more about that player. There is less guesswork.

But an international player, especially one who is good enough to move faster than normal, can get to the big leagues at a young age. The Nationals' Juan Soto debuted at 19 and finished ninth for the MVP award at 20. Ronald Acuña Jr. debuted at 20 for Atlanta and was the National League Rookie of the Year. Ramírez debuted at 20 for Cleveland.

It took him longer to put up big numbers for the Indians, but this year he finished second for American League MVP to White Sox slugger José Abreu. Over 58 games, Ramírez hit .292/.386/.607 with 16 doubles, 17 homers, 46 RBIs and a .993 OPS. For his career he has hit .281/.354/.607/.848. His career OPS plus is 123. Ramírez finished third in the MVP voting after the 2017 and 2018 seasons. He's a two-time All-Star and three-time Silver Slugger award winner.

But he was just another name among a list of transactions in November 2009. That was when the Indians signed him for $50,000.

That was quite the bargain and proves you get an international prospect signed for a lower amount and later see him hit big. Acuña, by the way, was signed for just $100,000 out of Venezuela. Soto signed for $1.5 million.

The Orioles have two international players on the MLBPipeline.com top 30. Pitcher Alexander Wells, ranked No. 19 and just added to the 40-man, was signed out of Australia for $300,000. Lefty pitcher Luis Ortiz from the Dominican, 18, is rated No. 29. He was part of Mike Elias' first international class of signings in July 2019 and signed for a bonus of $400,000. Ortiz has good size at 6-foot-3, but he can still grow further into his body. And MLBPipeline.com already puts 55 grades on his fastball and curveball.

While he received the second-highest bonus in that 2019 class (outfielder Luis Gonzalez signed for $475,000), the O's may have their first international amateur signings of $1 million or more to come. Major League Baseball delayed the signing date of the current international class from last July 2 to Jan. 15, 2021, so the new year will bring officially a new group of international signings for the Orioles.

Back in the summer, Baseball America reported on several agreements the Orioles have with international amateurs. They included two well regarded prospects in Venezuelan shortstop Maikol Hernandez. The 16-year-old Hernandez is 6-foot-4 and 175 pounds and has several impressive tools including a strong arm and power. He's drawn some comparisons to bigger shortstops at young ages, such as Carlos Correa and Manny Machado. The O's have an agreement also with top catching prospect Samuel Basallo from the Dominican Republic. Basallo, who turned 16 on Aug. 13, has some left-handed raw power and an arm that gets 60 grades from some scouts. But he is a big catcher already at 6-foot-3 and 198 pounds and could outgrow the catching position.

I spoke with Ben Badler of Baseball America in this entry in June about some of these agreements.

Per Baseball America, Basallo, once linked to the Yankees, could get a bonus of between $1 million and $1.5 million. There is a strong possibility that Hernandez commands a seven-figure bonus as well. It wasn't long ago that the O's were not very involved at all on the international amateur front, and now they could be looking at two players signed for $1 million or more come January. That class also includes an outfielder in Wilmer Feliciano, who could get nearly $500,000.

It will be exciting to see the Orioles hand out seven-figure bonuses to young international talent, and they hope those kids hit it big. This is a big part of building that elite talent pipeline. Those kids could reach the majors at a young age.

But as José Ramírez proved, you might hit it big with international amateurs signed for modest bonuses as well.