With an ERA of 5.94, will Chris Tillman be able to turn it around?

Chris Tillman is now 2-7 with an ERA of 5.94 and he has already lost one more game this year than he did over 34 starts in 2014.

Tillman's current ERA is higher than it was at any point last year, when it got as high as 5.20 on June 5, and it hasn't been this high since April 17, 2013 when Tillman had an ERA of 7.07 after his third start of that season.

tillman-pitching-alds-white-sidebar.pngWhat is going on with the Orioles' opening day starter from 2014 and 2015?

Is he hurt? He said he felt fine physically and mentally after yesterday's outing, where he gave up six runs in 4 2/3 innings against Tampa Bay. It was the most runs allowed by an O's starter since April 23, when Tillman gave up seven runs against Toronto.

Buck Showalter said of Tillman after Sunday's game: "He's very close and he's going to pitch good for us this year and hopefully for a long time. ... It's not like he's that far way. Try to keep that in mind. It may look that because we're all tied up in the end game. I got it. But in the whole scheme of things, that's not something I fret over."

Tillman had similar thoughts after his outing. He said if he keeps putting in the hard work, the results will come.

"I've had my ups and downs and I feel like we're heading in the right direction," he said. "Saw a lot of positives today. The negatives kind of overwhelm, but I think we are getting somewhere. Just have to make that last big step and I think we'll be all right. Mentally, I'm good. I feel really good about where I am at. I just think it's execution."

It is strange to see Tillman take the mound and the Orioles not win more often. How strange?

From 2012-14, Tillman made 82 starts and the Orioles won 67 percent of them, going 55-27. They ended last year winning 11 of Tillman's last 12 regular season starts and going 24-10 for the season. This year they are 3-7 in his 10 starts.

Tillman had a stretch that started last June 10 when he made 20 straight starts allowing three earned runs or less. That is tied for the second longest streak in club history. But this year he has allowed three earned runs or less in just five of his 10 starts.

Tillman 2014: 3.34 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 2.9 walks/nine innings, .238 average against.
Tillman 2015: 5.94 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 4.8 walks/nine innings, .291 average against.

Looking at the batting average against and walk ratio, Tillman is faring much worse in those stat categories than last year.

Tillman a had very rough four-start stretch last season and it came right at this time. From May 21-June 5, 2014 Tillman pitched 14 1/3 innings, allowing 23 hits and 20 runs. It was a stunningly bad stretch when he failed to get an out in the second inning in two of those outings.

He recovered from that to pitch to an ERA of 2.38 over his last 21 starts last year. Can he bounce back to pitch that well again? Can he even return to a form that will lead him to similar stats to his 2014 totals?

Last season Tillman gave up four runs or more seven times all year. That has happened already five times in 2015.

All of these numbers might lead one to think Tillman is on his way to a poor season. I am not ready to say that. I've seen him be too good for too long. I see Tillman turning this around. He pitched to an ERA of 5.68 last May and his ERA is 5.03 this May.

He turned it around then. Can he do it again?




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