With rare exceptions, Burnes delivered big for the 2024 Orioles

Late in the year, and for much of the 2024 season, O’s fans saw right-hander Corbin Burnes take the mound and pitch as the ace he was said to be.

You can earn ace status when you win a Cy Young Award, as he did with Milwaukee in 2021. From 2020 through 2023, Burnes finished sixth, first, seventh and eighth for the award. He should be in line for another finish up the board this winter too.

Over 32 O's starts, Burnes went 15-9 with a 2.92 ERA over 194 1/3 innings. He recorded 22 quality starts and had a 1.096 WHIP while averaging 2.2 walks per nine and 8.4 strikeouts per nine.

His K per nine has dropped every year since 2020 and yet he posted a sub 3.00 ERA in four of those five seasons. The guy is just good with a big strikeout total or not.

Look at what might be his last two O’s starts, one in the regular season at Yankee Stadium where he was held to five innings and one in the playoffs against Kansas City.

In New York he had a 46 percent whiff rate (16 whiffs on 35 swings) and fanned nine over five innings. Dominant stuff Against K.C. he had a 14 percent whiff rate (six whiffs on 42 swings) and fanned three over eight innings. He was great in both outings.

For whatever reason, Burnes struggled in August with a 7.36 ERA and .827 OPS allowed. But in September those numbers were 1.20 ERA and .512 OPS against.

Over his last three regular season starts, he gave up seven hits and one run in 19 innings.

Burnes this year became the second qualified O's pitcher with a sub-3.00 ERA since Mike Mussina posted a 2.54 ERA in 1992, joining Kyle Bradish (at 2.83) in 2023.

In the final AL stats, Burnes tied for first in quality starts, was third in innings, fourth in ERA, sixth in OPS (.622) and eighth in WHIP (1.10).

Burnes tweaked his cutter late in the year with better results. He used his cutter 41.6 percent in August (when he was inconsistent with the pitch) and 52.6 in September. He used his cutter 58 percent against the Royals at an average velocity of 94.2 mph. It seems he took a bit off that pitch late in the year as the average cutter speed for the season was 95.3 mph.

What will Burnes get via free agency?

I will guess an average annual value of at least $30 million, maybe much more. A $200 million deal should be reachable and maybe the final tally will be $300 million or more.

Last year at age 26 (Burnes will be 30 soon), right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto got 12 years and $325 million from the Los Angeles Dodgers. Last year at age 30, Aaron Nola got a seven-year deal for $172 million ($24.5 million average annual value) from the Phillies.

Burnes is better than Nola, who has a 113 career ERA plus to 129 for Burnes.

There will be a segment of O's fans that insist they have to resign Burnes because they won 91 games with him and they will do worse without him. While that could be true, the 2023 team, without Burnes, won 101 games and a division title.

Should the O's go the extra mile to try and keep Burnes, who no doubt will hit free agency and test the market? It seems unlikely they will keep him an Oriole and there will be some, maybe even some among O's team management, that will wonder if that is even the best way to spend $200 to $300 million, maybe more.