When Major League Baseball added a second Wild Card to each league in 2012, the trade market completely changed. As I look at the standings here on July 23, six teams are within five games for an American League Wild Card berth. If you include the three division leaders and two teams that current sit in a Wild Card spot, that's 11 of the league's 15 teams.
How is it possible that only four clubs will sell at deadline? Maybe it's time to push pack that date another two weeks.
Prior to Game 2in the Bronx, Orioles executive vice president Dan Duquette confirmed a plan that should not have surprised anyone with a watchful eye on the standings: The O's will be buyers at the trade deadline. Why shouldn't they? The defending AL East champs are six games back in the division and 3 1/2 back in the Wild Card with over two months to play.
The future after the 2015 season remains uncertain. Chris Davis, Matt Wieters, Wei-Yin Chen and Darren O'Day highlight the Birds' impressive list of upcoming free agents. Some have argued that it may be in the O's best interest to trade some of the talent that they'll likely lose in free agency to reload the farm system. Baltimore's Top 2 prospects are injured, so the O's do not currently have an active player that cracks Baseball America's Top 100 prospects list.
My argument is, and has always been, that the American League is wide open for the taking this season. In fact, I can't remember the AL being so up for grabs. Despite two disappointing games against the first-place Yankees, the Orioles are still very much in this thing and you only get so many cracks at winning a championship. Why not go for it when you've got the chance?
Based on Duquette's comments, it appears that the Orioles are following that philosophy. So, what could they use at the deadline?
After watching this club in July, I think everyone is clamoring for some offense. The O's went 0-for-5 with runners in scoring position on Wednesday evening and are batting just .236 as a team this month. Their struggles with men on have been almost unfathomable. The Orioles currently rank 27th in the big leagues in runs scored this month (52) after finishing second in June (148).
Interestingly, their strikeout and walk rates in July closely resemble those in June, but the noticeable difference is the .324 BABIP last month compared to .275 this month. The Birds' offense was probably a bit fortunate in June, and they have run into some bad luck here in July, but that doesn't mean that they should stand pat and hope their numbers level off as the stretch run inches closer. A corner outfielder with some pop would certainly be a welcomed addition if the O's can bring one in at an affordable rate.
Despite the frustrating offense, I still have faith that the bats will eventually come around. My biggest concern for the Orioles if they reach October is still starting pitching. With a 4.24 ERA this season, O's starters rank 22nd in MLB. The Birds' rotation also gives up homers at an alarming rate (1.24 HR/9 innings) and pitches fewer innings than 26 other teams. That just won't work in the postseason. Thankfully, the bullpen relieving them is one of the best in the league with a 2.81 ERA and 8.99 K/9.
As much as the Orioles could use a starter behind Ubaldo Jimenez and Wei-Yin Chen, their available trade chips likely won't bring back enough in return to make that type of move. That's why I think adding a shutdown reliever (like they did last year) that the O's could pair with O'Day and Zach Britton to help shorten games for the rotation might make the most sense. Just look at how the AL champion Royals are constructed.
The next week is going to be full of rumors, speculation and buzz about what contending teams might add for their playoff push. It's the greatest time of year, isn't it? Hopefully the Orioles will find themselves in the mix. The trade deadline could make or break a team's chances in this wide-open league.
Zach Wilt blogs about the Orioles at Baltimore Sports Report. Follow him on Twitter: @zach_wilt. His views appear here as part of MASNsports.com's season-long initiative of welcoming guest bloggers to our pages. All opinions expressed are those of the guest bloggers, who are not employed by MASNsports.com but are just as passionate about their baseball as our roster of writers.
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