Looking at a few stats and theories on Adley Rutschman's poor second-half

It is a key question both in looking back at the Orioles’ 2024 season and ahead to what they hope is another good year for 2025.

What will it take to get Adley Rutschman’s bat going again?

Was he hurt when he slumped for much of the second-half?

“There is not an injury that I would speak to of any nature,” Mike Elias said during the season-ending press conference. The Orioles keep indicating that while Rutschman may have had the usual bumps and bruises, no injury was the main cause for his poor late-year stats.

Unless and until they tell us something different, that is what we have to go on here.

Rutschman, some may not have noticed, hit just one fewer homer with one fewer RBI from 2023 to 2024 with 20 and 80 and then 19 and 79.

But in no way did he have a similar season.

Rutschman started the All-Star game in July and in 79 games through June 30 he hit .294/.350/.471/.821 with 15 homers and 55 RBIs. He was on a 30-homer, 100-RBI pace. He was doing exactly what the team hoped he would.

In 69 games from July 1 through the end of the regular season he batted .194/.278/.286/.564 with four homers and 24 RBIs.

Said Elias of his struggles: “Look, physically he’s a catcher, he gives his all to this team and this position when he’s out there, and he’s naturally tired. A lot of these guys are tired. I think we’re all tired, but so are other teams in the league. That’s not an excuse. I think he’s said as much.

“He has done so much here, kind of turned our organization around, or a big part of it. Turned around cultures, both in the minor leagues and the major leagues. Has been such a key to our ascent that it’s been very frustrating for him and for us to see him experience the degree of struggles that he did in the second half, really for the first time since we’ve had him. But he is an elite competitor, an athlete, and he’s our guy. I have nothing but confidence that he’s going to be back to Adley Rutschman in 2025.”

Rutschman’s wRC+ was 127 in 2023 and 104 this year and his fWAR dropped from 5.4 to 2.8.

While he hit well versus lefty pitching in both of the last two years, he fell off big time last year versus right-handed pitching. He had an OPS of .777 versus right-handers in 2023 and it was .631 last season.

“Adley had a tough second half,” said manager Brandon Hyde. “Dealing with adversity really for the first time. Probably pressing. Probably trying to do too much. Probably trying to be the All-Star player that he was in the first half. I think he’s going to have a great year next year.”

One area via Stats Perform that could be a red flag. Rutschman had a flyball percentage of 30.5 in 2023 and 40.0 last season. Was there too much trying to lift the baseball?

Rutschman controlled the zone but not as well as he had in 2023 when his walk rate was 13.4 and K rate 14.7. In 2024, his walk rate dropped to 9.1 and K rate increased slightly to 16.1.

He saw fewer pitches per plate appearance this year, going from 4.23 to 4.06.

He pulled the ball more in 2024 and hit to the opposite field less, going from 29.3 oppo percent in 2023 to just 22.1 in 2024.

All of the above probably contributed to a player seeing his OPS drop from .809 to .709.

The first number is an All-Star talent that gets MVP votes. The second is just above league average but he was way below that in the second half.

How to fix that is an offseason job both for Rutschman and the entire O's organization.