What to watch for in tonight's Hall of Fame election

It was an eventful holiday weekend. Well, not for the Nationals, who were quiet. But there was no shortage of news elsewhere, in the baseball world, in both the professional and collegiate football world and of course in the world in general.

And if you can stomach any more, there’s going to be significant baseball news later today. It’s Hall of Fame election day, when we find out which former players earned enough support from members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America to secure enshrinement in Cooperstown this summer.

As always, I’ll publish my ballot and explainer column after the official announcement at 6 p.m. Eastern. But to whet your appetite for what’s to come – or if you simply haven’t had a chance to pay much attention leading into tonight’s announcement – here’s a quick primer on the 2025 ballot and what to watch for this evening …

* HOW CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT DOES ICHIRO GET?
The most obvious, slam-dunk candidate on this year’s ballot is Ichiro Suzuki, who should have no trouble getting elected in his first attempt. The only real question is if the Japanese hitting machine gets unanimous support, or something really close to it. Who wouldn’t vote for Ichiro? Perhaps someone who holds it against him that his major league career didn’t begin until 27 (even though he still surpassed 3,000 hits with the late start following his time at home in Japan). But there can’t be too many holdouts. Mariano Rivera remains the only player ever elected with 100 percent support. Maybe Ichiro joins him tonight?

* DOES WAGNER FINALLY GET OVER THE HUMP?
Billy Wagner appears on the BBWAA ballot for the 10th time. He’s not allowed to appear an 11th time. Way back in 2016, he received only 10.5 percent support. By 2024, he was all the way up to 73.8 percent, a mere 1.2 percent shy. It would be an awfully cruel twist to get that close and then still come up short in his 10th and final attempt. Voting history suggests that won’t happen. Pretty much everyone who gets that close eventually gets over the hump. But it’ll still make for a high-stress afternoon for Wagner as he awaits that long-awaited call.

* IS CC SABATHIA A FIRST-BALLOT HALL OF FAMER?
We don’t necessarily think of the big lefty as a so-called “inner circle” Hall of Famer, but based on ballot tracking by Ryan Thibodaux and his team, Sabathia has an excellent change of getting elected in his first attempt. Perhaps the scores of ballots that weren’t made public in advance won’t include as much support for Sabathia, and he’ll fall short. But whether it happens this year, next year or sometime after that, it does appear he’s destined for Cooperstown one of these days. Perhaps even today.

* IS THERE ENOUGH GROWING SUPPORT FOR BELTRAN AND/OR JONES?
So, there are probably going to be at least two names announced tonight, a decent chance there will be three. Could there actually be four or five? If it happens, it’ll be because either Carlos Beltran or Andruw Jones – or both! – made a significant gain in support from last year to reach the coveted 75 percent threshold. Jones was at 61.6 percent last year, his seventh on the ballot. Beltran was at 57.1 percent on only his second ballot. Each has a red flag that could hold him back (Jones’ career tailspin after turning 30, Beltran’s connection to the Astros’ cheating scandal), but it may not be enough anymore to keep one or both out of Cooperstown.

* HOW MANY FIRST-TIMERS STAY ON THE BALLOT?
It requires 75 percent to get elected. It requires 5 percent to stay on the ballot for another year. Of the 28 players on this year’s ballot, 14 are returnees from the 2024 ballot. Which means there are 14 newcomers. We already discussed Suzuki and Sabathia’s chances of getting elected on the first try. None of their fellow newcomers are going to be elected yet, but several could get enough support to stick around and have a shot in future years. The top candidates for that distinction are probably Félix Hernández and Dustin Pedroia. It’s going to be tougher for the others (Carlos González, Curtis Granderson, Adam Jones, Ian Kinsler, Russell Martin, Brian McCann, Hanley Ramirez, Fernando Rodney, Troy Tulowitzki, Ben Zobrist) to get to 5 percent.