With manager Joe Maddon, big-money pitcher Jon Lester and power-hitting prospect Kris Bryant, the Chicago Cubs are all the rage in the National League Central.
But are they are a serious contender or merely hype? Have their young players matured enough to compete in what might be baseball's deepest division?
The St. Louis Cardinals, who have won at least 90 games in four of the last six seasons, are as good as ever. The Pittsburgh Pirates have a reasonable chance to win a division after being a wild card team. Cincinnati has a power lineup, but its pitching is shaky, which is the same story for Milwaukee. Both the Reds and Brewers faded in the second half of last season.
This time, the NL Central will finish like this: Cardinals, Pirates, Brewers, Cubs, Reds.
Take a look:
St. Louis: The Cardinals, who come into the season with no major injuries, take aim at their 12th postseason appearance since 2000. Since 2011, they've reached the National League Championship Series in four consecutive years. They won the 2006 and 2011 World Series, and have had one losing season since 2000. ... The Cardinals rotation ace is Adam Wainwright, 33, followed by Lance Lynn and John Lackey. Wainwright is the classic workhorse No. 1 with big-game success. Lynn is a bulldog with 200 innings in sight. Lackey, who started Game 7 of the World Series for the Angels in 2002, is older, but capable of finishing with a 3.30 ERA. St. Louis' 2013 October pitching hero, Michael Wacha, is back after a shoulder injury and could be an All-Star. Wacha has made 22 starts combined in the last two seasons, so his durability could be an issue. Top-notch prospect Carlos Martinez, with an electric fastball, is the No. 5. The feel-good story is lefty Jamie Garcia, who has had an impressive spring after injuries limited him to 16 starts combined in the last two seasons. Garcia made 70 starts in three prior seasons. ... The new bat in the lineup is right fielder Jason Heyward, acquired from Atlanta. He'll play excellent defense, but the question is whether he'll give the Cardinals power he had when he was coming up with the Braves. ... The infield, from first to third, is Matt Adams, Kolten Wong, Jhonny Peralta and Matt Carpenter. Jon Jay and Matt Holliday join Heyward in the outfield, with Yadier Molina behind the plate. The Cardinals are known as patient hitters, but they could also have seven players finish in double-figure home runs. ... The back end of the Cardinals bullpen has lights-out ability with Jordan Walden setting up closer Trevor Rosenthal's 97 mph fastball.
Pittsburgh: The Pirates, who were a wild card team for the second consecutive October last season and were eliminated by San Francisco's Madison Bumgarner in the wild card game, have a strong bullpen, rotation depth and an offense that is emerging. ... The Pirates' last two playoff teams have been light on runs, but that could be different this time. Outfielder Andrew McCutchen, who hit .314 with a .410 on-base percentage, 25 home runs and 18 steals last season, is the best hitter on the team, the potential NL MVP candidate. But outfielder Starling Marte, who hit .348 in the second half, is coming on and should give McCutchen much-needed support. Pedro Alvarez, who might hit 25 home runs, is moving from third to first. Can the leadoff batter, Josh Harrison, repeat a season where he hit .318 with a .347 on-base percentage? The Pirates believed enough in super prospect Gregor Polanco, who struggles to hit curveballs, to trade a hot-hitting Travis Snider to the Orioles. Polanco was up and down from the minors last season. ... The rotation has Francisco Liriano, Gerrit Cole, A.J. Burnett, Charlie Morton, Vance Worley and Jeff Locke as the top six. Cole has grown up in the organization and is on his way to the top of the rotation. Burnett can pitch 200 innings. Liriano (3.38 ERA last season) started slow last season after a broken forearm. Morton had a 3.72 ERA last season. Locke is a lefty gaining experience and Worley has turned his career around since leaving Minnesota. ... One question: How well will catcher Francisco Cervelli do in replacing Russell Martin, gone to Toronto, behind the plate? Martin's defense and ability to lead young pitchers are legendary. ... Mark Melancon, who saved 33 games last season, has developed into one of the most reliable closers in the game.
Milwaukee: The Brewers were good and bad last season, having 51 wins going into July and fading in the second half. The issue was run production, falling to 13th in runs scored (227), ahead of Cincinnati and Atlanta, in the second half of 2014. ... A key is the return of a healthy Ryan Braun, who followed his 2011 NL MVP season with 41 home runs in 2012. After that, he's had injuries and a 65-game PED suspension that has left him with 28 home runs combined in the last two seasons, including a career-low .266 average in 2014. The Brewers acquired first baseman Adam Lind, a good contact guy who hit .321 with a .381 on-base percentage last season for Toronto. Lind fills a big need at first base. Center fielder Carlos Gomez is a speed and power threat at the top of the lineup and the Brewers need more consistent offense from catcher Jonathan LuCroy, who got NL MVP votes last season. He hit .294 with 16 home runs last season even though he wasn't the same force at the plate in the second half. ... Gomez is one of the best defensive center fielders in the game and Braun moving to right should make the Brewers' outfield defense better. The Brewers' rotation is weaker without ace pitcher Yovani Gallardo, traded to Texas, so the rotation keys on the health of Matt Garza and Kyle Lohse and the continued emergence of Wily Peralta, who had 17 wins in 2014. A lot depends on how quickly prospects Mike Fiers (2.13 ERA in 72 1/3 innings last year) and Jimmy Nelson (4.93 ERA) develop to boost the back of the rotation. ... Francisco Rodriguez is the closer. He's not as dominant with his fastball as he once was, but he's effective because he knows how to pitch.
Chicago: The Cubs, who haven't won a World Series since 1907, are coming off a last-place finish and looking for their first winning season since 2009. ... Signing lefty starter Jon Lester, a proven 200-inning guy with big-game experience for Boston, to a $155 million contract didn't exactly dampen the expectations of the North Side. The Cubs are improved, but it would be asking too much for them to win the NL Central. ... Pitcher Jake Arrieta, a former Oriole who has excellent stuff but never the production to show for it, needs to follow up his breakout 2014, when he won 10 games with a 2.53 ERA. Jason Hammel, another former Oriole, won eight games with a 2.88 ERA, pitching 109 innings last season. Kyle Hendricks pitched well as a rookie last season, but he's not overpowering. There's also lefty Travis Wood, who had ERAs of 3.11 and 5.03 in the last two seasons. ... The Cubs added catcher Miguel Montero (.243-13-72) to a lineup that has Starlin Castro (.292-14-66) and Anthony Rizzo (.286-32-78), but how quickly much-ballyhooed prospects such as Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Jorge Soler and Arismendy Alcantara develop will be the test on when the Cubs become viable as a contender. ... The Cubs will start Bryant in the minors, a controversial decision given his Cactus League power numbers, but team president Theo Epstein says he'd rather bring Bryant, a third baseman who could play left field, to the majors after he develops a hitting rhythm in the minors. If Bryant stays 12 days in the minors, he's not eligible for free agency until after 2021. If he had started the season with the Cubs, free agency would have come after 2020.
Cincinnati: The Reds had 51 wins at the All-Star break last season, but injuries to key players dropped them to 25-42 in the second half and out of contention. The Reds had 86 losses last season and it's a fair question: Has the Reds' window passed them by? ... The Reds' strength is their power-hitting lineup, not an easy team to contain, especially in hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati. ... The Reds could lead the National League in home runs. They have five players that could each hit at least 25 home runs: Todd Frazier, Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Devon Mesoraco and Marlon Byrd - and two more, Brandon Phillips and Zack Cosart, that could smash at least 10. ... Votto, 31, played in 61 games last season, which ended his streak of four consecutive NL on-base titles. ... The Reds' most exciting player, Billy Hamilton, is learning on the job, but he did steal 56 bases as a rookie in 2014. That total will jump when he learns the strike zone, gets better at reading pitchers and improves his .292 on-base percentage. He was caught 23 times last season. ...The rotation is thin, given that Mat Latos (Miami) and Alfredo Simon (Detroit) were traded. ... The rotation ace is Johnny Cueto, who could be an NL Cy Young contender with a mid-90s fastball, cutter and sinker. He won 20 games last season with a 2.25 ERA. The next two in the rotation are Mike Leake and Homer Bailey, each likely to wind up in the 3.70 range for ERA. The rotation also has lefty Tony Cingrani and prospect Anthony DeSclafani, who came from the Marlins in the Latos trade. ... The closer is lefty Aroldis Chapman and his high-90s fastball. Chapman had 36 saves last season and average 17.6 strikeouts per nine innings.
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