Even in odd season, deadline day feels familiar for Nats

As he watched a Nationals club with lofty expectations struggle to generate any kind of positive momentum and arrive at the trade deadline with a sub-.500 record, general manager Mike Rizzo explained why he felt like his best course of action was to stand pat with the roster as is, neither buying a big-name player who could make an immediate impact or sell a popular veteran set to become a free agent at season's end.

"Track record," Rizzo said. "We believe in the players we have. ... We feel on paper we're as good as any team in the league, if we play up to our capabilities."

Rizzo didn't say this on trade deadline day 2020. He said it on trade deadline day 2018.

Before they finally got over the hump in 2019, before they rallied back from 19-31, before they stayed in the fight and went 1-0 every day, before bumpy roads led to beautiful places, the 2018 Nationals found themselves stuck in a position that feels awfully familiar today.

After four months spent hovering around the .500 mark due to an under-achieving rotation and an all-or-nothing lineup, they went into the trade deadline wondering if they'd buy big (J.T. Realmuto), sell big (Bryce Harper) or stand pat and hope the roster as constructed could figure it out. Rizzo decided to stand pat, at least for the moment. Three weeks later, as the season continued to spiral downward, he waved the white flag and dealt away free agents-to-be Daniel Murphy, Gio González, Matt Adams and Ryan Madson.

The 2020 season is an entirely different animal, with only 60 games on the schedule, 16 teams making the playoffs and no in-person scouting of other clubs. And, of course, there's a dramatic reduction in pressure to win now on the heels of the franchise's first World Series title last fall.

But in many ways, this current Nationals season has been playing out just like the 2018 campaign did. At 12-19, this team is on the outside looking in, though still only three games out of the National League's eighth and final postseason berth. There are veteran free agents-to-be who might be attractive to other clubs: Howie Kendrick, Asdrúbal Cabrera, Kurt Suzuki, Aníbal Sánchez, Adam Eaton, Sean Doolittle.

But just like the 2018 Nationals, this team still has a chance to win, even if the odds are decreasing by the day.

"We went through this last year and cleaned it up rather quickly after a slow start," Rizzo said last week during his most recent Zoom session with reporters. "We have to do the same thing now. I don't think it's anywhere near too late to make adjustments, but we have to play better."

Rizzo, maybe more than any other GM in the sport, excels at holding his cards close to his vest. When he makes a move at the trade deadline, he usually catches the outside world by surprise. So perhaps he's got something brewing that could be finalized before 4 p.m. today, the much-needed addition of another starting pitcher or a veteran bat.

But read between the lines in recent days, and it sounds like another day of only minor activity is more likely. In this most unusual season, a blockbuster deal probably just isn't worth it.

"If we get a deal that's going to help us in the long run, Riz is not afraid to pull the trigger," manager Davey Martinez said. "That being said, it is different. It's one month you're getting a player for, unless you get a guy where he's going to have a multi-year contract or you're trying to do something big. I don't foresee us doing that right now. I like the guys we got. We've got to keep playing hard."

It sounds like something Martinez might've said on July 30, 2018, the day before the Nationals stood pat and wound up missing the postseason.

Martinez gave this quote on Aug. 30, 2020. Now it's up to Rizzo to decide whether to once again stand pat and find out if that strategy will produce a different result this time around.