How the Nationals turned a comfortable lead into a tight race

ST. LOUIS - For more than two months now, the Nationals have not only been in wild card position but (aside from a couple of days) have been in the driver's seat to host the Oct. 1 winner-take-all game.

As recently as two weeks ago, they held a four-game lead over the Cubs for home field advantage and a seven-game lead for a spot in the wild card game.

And by the end of play tonight, they could have given all of it back.

The combination of a sluggish September (6-9) for the Nationals with a red-hot September for the Brewers (12-3) has left Washington in a very precarious position. They now lead the Cubs by only 1/2-game for the top wild card slot and the Brewers by only 1 1/2 games for the second slot.

The possibility of never reaching the postseason is very real, even though various projection models still give them anywhere from an 87 to 91 percent chance of making it.

It's not that the Nationals are playing horrible baseball right now. They're just falling victim to a brutally tough schedule to close out the regular season (24 of 27 games against opponents with winning records). And they're watching the Cubs (winners of five in a row) and Brewers (10 of 11) get hot at the same time and make up ground in rapid-fire fashion.

It makes for a bad combination for a team that desperately wants to make sure its three-month-long run of dominance results in October baseball and not another collapse before ever getting there.

So what happened? Well, a lineup that put up record-setting numbers in August has turned remarkably inconsistent in September. There's still the occasional outburst: Four times in 15 games this month they've scored nine or more runs. But there's also too many duds from the lineup: Seven times in 15 games they've scored three or fewer runs.

What's the end result of all that? The Nationals score an average of nine runs this month when they win, but only 2.1 runs when they lose.

The lack of offense puts added strain on a pitching staff that is trying to keep games close down the stretch but isn't always successful. Nationals starters, often done in by high pitch counts, are averaging only 5.5 innings per game this month, down from an average of 5.8 innings per start from April-August.

It may not sound like a lot, but it makes a difference, especially for a team with a bad bullpen. The Nationals are regularly needing to turn to a reliever (usually not one of their best) in the sixth inning of close games.

And they're not keeping the games close, certainly not when they're ahead. Get this: A Nats reliever hasn't recorded a save since Aug. 16, when Sean Doolittle pitched a scoreless ninth to preserve a 2-1 victory over the Brewers. They've had only five save opportunities since then, and only one of those came in the ninth inning (Aug. 30 vs. the Marlins, when Daniel Hudson blew the game but still picked up the win when his teammates came back in the bottom of the inning).

This team needs to find its winning formula again. What is that formula? Get an early lead. Get six or more innings from the starting pitcher. Get competent work from the bullpen. Score more runs off the opposing bullpen, either to tack on insurance runs or complete a modest come-from-behind victory.

Trouble is, the daunting schedule continues to loom large. The Nationals need to find a way to win at least one of these next two days against the Cardinals, if not both. They probably need to sweep the Marlins this weekend, which is easy to say and much harder to actually do.

Then they need to win at least three of five games against a Phillies team that may be on the verge of mathematical elimination by then. And they need to close out the regular season with a win or two over an Indians team that could be fighting for its own playoff life that weekend.

If the Nationals can find a way to go 8-5 the rest of the way, they'll get to 90 wins. To also get to 90 wins, the Cubs need to go 8-4, while the Brewers need to go 9-3. If 90 wins isn't enough to at least get into a tiebreaker Game 163, then all credit to Chicago and Milwaukee for finishing the season on an absolute tear.

Here's one final sobering thought: For all the talk of lining up Max Scherzer to pitch the wild card game, the Nationals may have no choice but to pitch their ace (along with their other top starters) during the regular season's final weekend. If they still need to win games to reach the postseason, they can't save their ace for a game that may never happen.

Obviously the best case scenario would have the Nats clinching with at least a couple days to spare, allowing the staff to line up the rotation the way it wants. But the odds of that happening are dwindling by the day. The Nationals appear likely to still be playing meaningful games through much (if not all) of the regular season's final week.

Hey, you always wanted to experience a real pennant race after years of early clinches or early elimination. Well, it looks like you're going to get it.

Start holding your breath now.