Baseball America pitches a shutout: No Orioles on the top 100 list

It may be Valentine's Day, but Baseball America did not show the Orioles any love on Friday. When it released its latest list of the game's top 100 prospects, not a single Oriole was on the list.

Baseball America has released 27 such lists since its debut top 100 ranking in 1990. The only other time the Orioles were shutout on a top 100 was in 2003.

I went through all 27 lists since 1990. In that span, there were 17 times the Orioles had at least three players on the list. They've had four or more players 11 times, but not since 2010. The all-time high was five on the list in 2008 when Matt Wieters (No. 12), Chris Tillman (No. 67), Radhames Liz (No. 69), Troy Patton (No. 78) and Nolan Reimold (No. 91) made it.

The Orioles have had the No. 1-ranked prospect in baseball just one time per Baseball America. Wieters was No. 1 in 2009. Ben McDonald was No. 2 in 1990 and Dylan Bundy was No. 2 in 2013.

There were two times when the O's had just one player on the top 100 from Baseball America. Keith Reed was No. 96 in 2001 and Erik Bedard No. 90 in 2002, so they were almost blanked two other times.

Bundy and Hunter Harvey, despite their injuries, made a few other top 100 lists recently, but not this one. Some don't quite see players like Chance Sisco, Jomar Reyes and Trey Mancini as top 100 guys and Baseball America is among them.

In the won-loss department the O's farm teams, from Triple-A Norfolk through the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League Orioles, went a combined 366-333 last season. Norfolk (78-66) and Double-A Bowie (79-63) made the playoffs, and Bowie won its first Eastern League championship in September. Some of the young kids showed promise on a GCL team that went 34-25.

But record alone is not an indicator of prospect quantity or quality. There is much more to it.

Along with the news of the Baseball America shutout, we also saw the O's organization ranked No. 27 in recent days by both Baseball America and ESPN. At the Winter Meetings in December, anticipating that such news was coming, I asked Baseball America's John Manuel if O's fans should be concerned about low rankings of the farm system.

"I think I'd be more concerned if they weren't contending at the major league level," Manuel said. "To me, I'd rather be contending in the majors than be rated highly on the farm. If Baltimore's big league team slips this year for the second consecutive year and their farm system is not ranked highly, then I would start being concerned.

"To me, it's a trend kind of thing. The way the game is set up right now, it is very difficult to both contend and have a highly ranked farm system. Not contending goes along with having the big international bonus, the big signing draft pools. There are only a few teams that are able to pull that off consecutively right now. Houston is one of them. Let's see them do it again at the major league level. I think they will. It is hard to do both. That is when I would start to get concerned - if the major league product falters along with the minor league product."

At Orioles FanFest in December, I asked minor league outfielder Mike Yastrzemski how players on the farm feel when the O's minor league system gets criticized.

"Maybe some guys take it personally," Yastrzemski said. "But I think you can look at it as room to grow. We have opportunity and we saw guys move up this year and help the big league club. You have to take small steps and understand the big picture. It doesn't matter what outside sources think. It is all about what we do on the interior, how we perform and how we grow. I think guys understand that pretty well."

I've written and said a few times that I believe there are three main reasons for the O's farm falling in these rankings from No. 10 and No. 12 two years ago. First, there were injuries to key talent like Bundy and Harvey. Second, they have graduated prospects to the major league roster like Jonathan Schoop and Kevin Gausman. Third, they traded minor league talent to help the big league club, dealing players like Eduardo Rodriguez, Zach Davies and Josh Hader.

We can argue and debate the merits of some of the trades all day, but for the most part, the above reasons are the explanation for these low rankings.

Do the O's need to do better? Yes, obviously they do. Are they terrible on the farm? Some feel that way and that is fine by me; I just don't completely agree. It is not all black or white here, there are versions of grey.

What Manuel said is right on. The O's big league product has led the American League in wins since 2012 and the farm helped them do that. If the O's can keep winning the next few years, the farm will no doubt be a part of that, as well. It is not all bad here. If the Orioles win the AL East this season, few will complain they did so while the farm system was ranked No. 27.

In a worst-case scenario. where the 2016 Orioles are a bad team in July, they could trade off players for prospects to quickly rebuild and reload on the farm. They can continue to upgrade their international efforts and try to find more players like Reyes. They can keep working to improve their drafting and player development.

Even in 2014, when they didn't have a draft pick until No. 90 overall they got several players they like, such as David Hess and Tanner Scott (also Pat Connaughton).

Fans have some reasons here to be concerned about the farm and they would no doubt feel better if the Orioles were seen in a better light by national analysts. But right now, that is not happening. The O's best course is to try to continue to be a winner and contender on the big league level while also taking steps to upgrade on the farm.