O's game blog: The Orioles-Yankees series opener at the Yard

They are the top two teams in the American League East, with the Orioles (57-36) leading the Yankees (56-39) by two games atop the division. But both have been playing under .500 ball for a couple of weeks or more. 

Heading into the weekend series, the Orioles are coming off being swept three straight by the Cubs. They have lost four of five and five of their past seven games. They are 8-11 since June 21. But they have actually gained 2.5 games on the Yankees since that date as New York is 5-13 since then.

The Yankees have lost three of four and seven of their last nine games. They are 6-17 since June 15 with a -35 run differential and 5.91 team ERA in that span, allowing 40 homers in those 23 games.

Will one team get well at the expense of the other this weekend?

Both have struggled with pitching lately, although the Orioles scored just two runs in the series with the Cubs. They still are among the best pitching staffs in baseball on the stat sheet. With a 3.60 team ERA, the Yankees rank second in the AL and at 3.66, the Orioles are fourth. O's starters have a 3.54 ERA to rank third while New York is fifth in the AL with a 3.66 rotation ERA. The Yankees bullpen is second (3.55) while the O's are eighth (3.86).

Even after scoring just two runs versus the Cubs and with a 24-inning scoreless streak riding, the O's still lead MLB in runs per game at 5.01. The Yankees are second at 4.98. The O's went 0-for-17 versus the Cubs with runners in scoring position. 

The last AL East team to win a series from the Orioles was the Yankees. They took two of three in Baltimore April 7-9, 2023. Since then the Orioles have played 22 straight series in the division without losing one, going 16-0-6.

And in that time they are 4-0-1 in five series versus the Yankees, going 11-6 in those 17 games. The Orioles are 9-3 in their last 12 games against New York since July 5, 2023. The O's are 5-2 this season, winning both their series, against the Yankees. 

This year, AL East vs. AL East:

.731 - Orioles (19-7)
.542 - Boston (13-11)
.438 - Yankees (14-18)
.429 - Toronto (12-16)
.400 - Tampa Bay (12-18)

The Orioles went 32-20 in AL East games last year making them 51-27 (.654) in division games since the 2023 season.

The Yankees are 0-7-1 in their past eight series during their recent struggles.

Aaron Judge, who leads MLB with 32 homers and 83 RBIs, is batting just .129 with an OPS of .358 in his past eight games, going 4-for-31 with no extra-base hits. This year versus Baltimore pitching he is 4-for-17 in six games with a homer and three RBIs. 

Tonight's pitching matchup is a rematch from June 19 at New York, a game the Orioles won 7-6 in 10 innings.

It is rookie lefty Cade Povich (1-3, 6.51 ERA) for the O's versus 2023 AL Cy Young Winner Gerrit Cole (1-1, 6.75 ERA). 

Povich is coming off an outing where he got just three outs Saturday at Oakland. He allowed five hits including two homers and eight runs over one inning plus, throwing 43 pitches. He walked three with one strikeout.

It was quite different from his four previous starts heading into the Oakland outing when his ERA was 2.53.

In that game in New York, Yankees batters went just 1-for-14 versus Povich. Over 4 2/3 innings he gave up one run with five walks and one strikeout.

Cole began this year on the 60-day injured list with right elbow inflammation. His 2024 season debut was in that earlier game against the Orioles, where he allowed two runs in four innings.

He has made four starts this year allowing two, six, one and four runs in throwing 62, 72, 90 and 90 pitches. For the season he has allowed 20 hits, including five homers in 17 1/3 with a 1.615 WHIP, a 4.2 walk rate and 9.9 strikeout rate.

Cole has made 13 career starts against the Orioles going 5-3 with a 2.64 ERA and 0.943 WHIP. In those games, O's batters hit .203 with a .572 OPS off of Cole.