Will we see more big-dollar free agent pitchers? (plus other notes)

Over the last couple of years, three pitchers have signed contracts worth more than $200 million through free agency. This winter, no pitcher got a deal worth more than $48 million.

But that had much more to do with the quality of the free agent class of pitchers, it seems, than any change in or scaling back of the mega-contract that an elite pitcher can get. It just says that David Price can get more on the free market than Rich Hill. A lot more.

Former Orioles general manager Andy MacPhail said pitching was fragile and expensive - two big reasons to "grow the arms," as he said. Try to develop younger, cheaper pitching that you keep can around a while. Pitchers like Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy.

But when the Boston Red Sox got a scare this week with Price, it makes you wonder if the day of the $200 million contract for a pitcher is over. What a massive risk a team incurs when handing out such a contract. The fragile nature of elbows and shoulders must make all GMs think long and hard about taking such a chance. Here is a look at the top pitching contracts from the last three free agent markets:

Before the 2015 season
* Seven years, $210 million for Max Scherzer from the Nationals
* Six years, $155 million for Jon Lester from the Cubs
* Four years, $75 million for James Shields from the Padres
* Four years, $55 million for Ervin Santana from the Twins

Scherzer has gone 34-19 with an ERA of 2.88 over 457 innings the last two seasons for Washington. In that same time, Lester is 30-17 with an ERA of 2.89 in 408 innings for the Cubs. Shields is 19-26 with an ERA of 4.83 in 384 innings for San Diego and the Chicago White Sox. Santana is 14-16 with an ERA of 3.61 in 289 innings for Minnesota.

Before the 2016 season
* Seven years, $217 million for David Price from Boston
* Six years, $206.5 million for Zach Greinke from Arizona
* Six years, $130 million for Johnny Cueto from San Francisco
* Five years, $110 million for Jordan Zimmermann from Detroit

Last year, Price was 17-9 with an ERA of 3.99 in 230 innings for Boston. Greinke went 13-7 with an ERA of 4.37 in 159 innings for Arizona. Cueto was 18-5 with an ERA of 2.79 over 220 innings for the Giants, while Zimmermann went 9-7 with an ERA of 4.87 over 105 innings for the Tigers.

Before the 2017 season
* Three years, $48 million for Rich Hill with the Dodgers
* Three years, $26 million for Ivan Nova from the Pirates
* Two years, $22 million for Edison Volquez from Miami
* Two years, $14 million for Charlie Morton from Houston

So the top four pitchers two winters ago signed for combined contracts of $495 million and that was $663.5 million last winter and a total of only $110 million this winter.

So is the price coming down or will it shoot right back up the next time a Lester or Greinke-type talent is available?

O's-Tides tickets: Tickets for the exhibition game at Harbor Park between the Orioles and Triple-A Norfolk Tides will go on sale this morning at 10 a.m. The Tides will host the Orioles on Friday March 31, with first pitch scheduled for 3:05 p.m.

Box seats are available for $25, while reserved seats are available for $22. Fans will be able to purchase tickets online via norfolktides.com, in person at the Harbor Park box office or via telephone at 1-800-745-3000.

This will be Baltimore's fifth appearance at Harbor Park since the Tides became the Triple-A affiliate of the Orioles in 2007. Harbor Park hosted exhibition games between the Orioles and Washington Nationals in 2007 and 2009, while the Orioles and Tides squared off prior to the 2012 and 2014 seasons.

Quick thoughts about spring training so far:

* After starting spring training going 1-for-7, Trey Mancini now has five hits his last 10 at-bats. In six games he is 6-for-17 (.353) with two doubles and three RBIs. But Mancini's path to an opening day roster spot seems blocked at the moment. Chris Davis is set for first base and Mark Trumbo is likely for DH at-bats. Add to that the outfield competition and Mancini may have to start the year back at Triple-A.

* Ryan Mountcastle will probably never forget his first homer in an Orioles uniform, even though it came in a game that didn't count. His two-run shot in the ninth inning Thursday produced a 6-6 tie with the Twins. Mountcastle is rated the Orioles' No. 2 prospect by Baseball Prospectus, No. 3 according to Baseball America and Minorleagueball.com, No. 4 per MLBPipeline.com and No. 6 according to ESPN.

* I jinxed right-hander Oliver Drake. My bad. I wrote earlier this week that his strong finish last year, improved pitch efficiency, ability to pitch multi-innings and being out of options put him in line to earn an opening day roster spot. But he's allowed six runs and eight hits, including two homers, in his first three spring innings. Still plenty of time to turn that around.

* The Arizona Diamondbacks have signed left-hander T.J. McFarland to a minor league contract. McFarland was with the Orioles for parts of four seasons. But he had a miserable 2016 filled with injury and ineffectiveness. He leaves Baltimore with a career ERA here of 4.27. If you believe in Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), McFarland's career 4.03 mark tops Chris Tillman (at 4.45) and is not far off from Gausman (at 3.92).