I’ve heard the speculation that Corbin Burnes could sign for less years at a higher annual average value, perhaps going as low as three years.

I’ll believe that when I see it. Not a minute beforehand.

There’s some logic in getting paid big on a shorter term and re-entering free agency at age 33. A sliver of logic. Thinly sliced like garlic with a razor on “Goodfellas.”

The pitching market melted a little more Sunday with the Marlins sending left-hander Jesús Luzardo to the Phillies - an injury risk but one of the most appealing starters on the trade market. Max Fried signed with the Yankees, receiving $218 million over eight seasons. Blake Snell got $182 million over five years from the Dodgers. Nathan Eovaldi exceeded some expectations by receiving $75 million over three years to stay with the Rangers. Garrett Crochet was dealt to the Red Sox.

Japanese right-hander Rōki Sasaki is out there and predicted by many in the industry to sign with a West Coast team if it isn’t one based in New York. Jack Flaherty and Nick Pivetta sit in the next-tier group. Sean Manaea and Walker Buehler just left it.

The Orioles have made the following roster moves:

• Agreed to terms on 2025 minor league contracts with OF Jordyn Adams, RHP Matt Bowman, and RHP Gerald Ogando.

Sure the Orioles, like most teams that don’t have one, could use an ace pitcher. They still hope to add one before the start of the 2025 season. 

But their current rotation has the makings of being a good one.

Here is how it looks today:

Zach Eflin: He is the probable Opening Day starter. After the trade to the Orioles, over nine starts, he went 5-2 with a 2.60 ERA. Only nine pitchers, including the Orioles' Corbin Burnes, that qualified, posted season-long ERAs under 3.00. To do it even for nine starts was impressive.

Eflin finished sixth for the 2023 American League Cy Young Award and has been among the best pitchers in the American League. Over the last two years, while Burnes posted a 3.15 ERA and 1.083 WHIP, Eflin was at 3.54 and 1.085.

Today, it’s another edition, our pre-Holiday edition, of several questions for O’s fans. Per usual, answer one question or all of them. Respond to other readers' answers with your takes on their takes. 

On to the questions:

1) Where does right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano slot into the O’s rotation? And after going 15-3 with a 1.67 ERA in Japan, how well will he do for the 2025 Orioles?

2) Which player will bat leadoff the most next season?

3) Which player will lead the 2025 O’s in home runs and hit how many?

Before we get to the holiday leftovers and play the game of “does this smell OK,” we should dig a little deeper into the mailbag.

Grab a shovel.

My editing consisted of thinking “maybe I should” and changing it to “absolutely not.”

The bullpen sorely lacked strikeouts in 2024. Was that due more to lousy luck or the arms not having strong "out" pitches? How do they improve on that in 2025?
The Orioles ranked 22^nd in relief strikeouts with 571. They were 14^th in 2023 with 614, and the total would have been higher with a healthy September from Félix Bautista. His return figures to ramp up the Ks. A full season from Seranthony Domínguez, who averages 10.4 per nine innings in his career, also is going to make a difference. You could say the same about Gregory Soto, who averaged 11.2 with the Phillies and 10.7 with the Orioles. Yennier Cano struck out 65 batters to match last year’s total, but he did it in 60 innings compared to 72 2/3 in 2023. Keegan Akin has averaged 10.3 and 11.1 the past two seasons in 23 2/3 and 78 2/3 innings, respectively. Danny Coulombe averaged 9.7, but only in 29 2/3 innings due to his elbow surgery. How was this team 22^nd?

I see that Cedric Mullins is now a member of the Executive Committee for the MLBPA. I'd be interested in knowing what is currently being discussed and how Cedric feels about being part of the inner workings of the Players Association.
That isn’t a question. Me, too, and he’ll be asked about it if he’s at the Birdland Caravan or in spring training.

When the Orioles begin the 2025 season, there is a pretty good chance right-hander Dean Kremer will be in their rotation. As he has been for the last few seasons.

Kremer posted an ERA of 3.23, a career best, in 21 starts in 2022. But he had a 4.12 ERA the next season, and last season it was 4.10.

That ERA was essentially league average: an ERA+ of 99 in 2023 and his ERA+ was 92 last year. His career mark is 4.28, so the O’s appreciate Kremer’s efforts, of course, but must wonder if he can find a higher gear.

Kremer, who turns 29 on Jan. 7, has just over three years of service time and is arbitration-eligible for the first time. He could get around $3.5 million via arbitration, per MLBTradeRumors.com. He cannot be a free agent until after the 2027 season.

In 2023, Kremer made 32 starts and the O’s had an outstanding 24-8 record in those games. They went 10-14 in his 24 starts this past season.

Mike Snyder just completed his 16^th season with the Orioles. He was inherited by Mike Elias when he joined the Orioles but has proven to be a key lieutenant to the O’s executive vice president and general manager.

Snyder completed his first year in the role of senior director of professional scouting after being promoted in October of 2023. In this role, he oversees the club’s pro scouting and player analysis across the majors, minors, and Asian professional leagues, as well as assisting with contract negotiations, 40-man roster construction, player transactions, and departmental hiring.

He has a hand in evaluating talent ranging from a minor league player who may have little chance to make the majors to some of the best players in all of MLB.

He has plenty of resources at his disposal no doubt and reams of stats, data and video to check as well as his in-person scouting looks.

But does character matter too? What role does that play when the O’s look to acquire a player?

Today in this space a few more comments from 2024 Double-A Bowie manager Roberto Mercado on a few of his players with the Baysox this year.

I interviewed Mercado after the Arizona Fall League season when he led Surprise to the AFL title game. During that interview we talked about his Fall League experience but also about several of his 2024 Baysox players.

One pitcher that impressed him was right-hander Cameron Weston, the club’s round eight pick in 2022 out of the University of Michigan.

He had solid stats pitching in four games at the start of last season for High-A Aberdeen before he moved to Bowie and pitched in 23 more games with 14 starts.

Despite his good 2024 and career numbers, Weston is not ranked in the current MLBPipeline.com O’s top 30 prospects list.

The holiday week is right around the corner, when baseball doesn’t have to shut down but often gets quiet.

The Orioles traded for pitcher Jonathan Heasley on Dec. 18, 2023 and didn’t announce another move until signing free-agent catchers David Bañuelos and Michael Pérez on the 30^th. Their only transactions in December 2021 were minor league deals due to the lockout, the last on the 15^th. But they made an exception in 2022 with a flurry that included the James McCann trade and Mychal Givens signing on the 21st and sending first baseman Lewin Díaz to the Braves on the 23^rd.

Executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias got agreements on two major league contracts right before this year’s Winter Meetings, securing outfielder Tyler O’Neill and catcher Gary Sánchez, and Japanese right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano signed with the club on Monday.

The roster probably isn’t done undergoing changes. Elias seems intent on finding at least one more reliever and he could continue his pursuit of a starter despite Sugano’s $13 million contract. Sugano isn’t a No. 1, which either keeps the search alive or leaves the Orioles choosing between Grayson Rodriguez and Zach Eflin and being satisfied with bolstering the middle of the rotation.

The 40-man roster is full and a 13-man pitching staff unexpectedly includes Sugano at $13 million. Per the Associated Press, he also can earn an additional $50,000 for an All-Star selection, $100,000 for winning the Cy Young Award, $75,000 for finishing in second place, $50,000 for finishing in third, $50,000 for winning a Gold Glove; $100,000 for being World Series Most Valuable Player, and $50,000 for being Championship Series MVP.

For the Orioles in recent years, seeing a highly-ranked prospect come up and produce right away has been a challenge. Frankly, it’s a challenge for a lot of players and teams.

Any move up the minor league ladder can be a challenge for a young player but the move to the majors is the hardest. Hard to get there, sometimes harder to stay there.

The O’s can go back to Cal Ripken Jr. to see his rough start in the majors. More recently, then No. 1 ranked prospect Adley Rutschman came up in May of 2022. After his first 20 big league games, he was batting .176 with no homers or RBIs. Colton Cowser hit .115 in 2023, and Grayson Rodriguez had an ERA of 7.35 his first 10 MLB starts. Now he’s a top of the rotation type pitcher.

In 2024, elite prospects like Jackson Holliday and Coby Mayo had some big-time MLB struggles.

During the Winter Meetings, O’s director of player development Anthony Villa was asked about how the organization can try to help their top prospects get off to better starts when they arrive in the big leagues?

The 11-month mark arrived Monday since the opening ceremony of the Orioles’ new, state-of-the-art training academy in Guerra, Dominican Republic.

The 22.5-acre complex is home to the organization’s regional facility for Caribbean, Central and South American player development operations, with three full fields, a sports turf agility field, batting and pitching tunnels, dormitories, administrative buildings, entertainment spaces, a dining room with nutritious meals, and three classrooms with a computer lab. The expectation was that more than 100 players, coaches and staff would be housed there.

“It’s an incredibly impressive facility,” manager Brandon Hyde said that day. “I just think it’s so well done and it means a ton for the organization because this is part of the lifeblood of our team and lifeblood of our organization is signing players and giving them a great facility to train in. And this is the step one for a lot of our young players that we signed that are going to be Baltimore Orioles, and to have them be in this sort of facility is incredible.

“Everything is done extremely well, just from the fields to the artificial surface for the agility field, to what the clubhouse and the classrooms look like. Just a really, really well designed facility, and looking forward to our young players using it. I didn’t really know what to expect. I’ve been to a couple of facilities down here before. Every one is a little bit different, but this is like modern and this is a really, really, new-age type of facility.”

More young players will be arriving with the international signing period beginning on Jan. 15.

With 13 international players ranked among the O’s top 30 prospects by MLBPipeline.com, the club’s international program keeps humming along.

It’s big for the Orioles to have both quantity and quality coming from the international prospects. Not only are players like Samuel Basallo getting close now to the majors, but the high number of ranked international prospects will help the O’s mainly a highly-ranked and fertile farm system.

Basallo remains the shining star, having played his age 19 season in 2024. He ends the year ranked as the No. 13 top 100 prospect by both Baseball America and MLBPipeline.

Over 127 games between Double-A Bowie (now Chesapeake) and Triple-A Norfolk, Basallo who turned 20 on Aug. 13, hit .278/.341/.449/.790 with 25 doubles, 19 homers and 65 RBIs.

Basallo produced an .820 OPS with Bowie with 16 homers, 55 RBIs. He hit just .222 with the Tides but batted .297 with an .810 OPS his last 11 games, after going 7-for-44 his first 10 games.

I couldn’t get to a few questions in the weekend mailbag and wanted to publish them before they got stale, like the bread used to make stuffing for your holiday turkey.

By the way, it’s dressing if prepared outside the bird. Let me address that one before it’s asked.

Here are some extras while we wait for Orioles news.

Is the offseason plan to just hope Grayson Rodriguez stays healthy and becomes the ace they hope?
I wouldn’t say it’s a “plan.” It isn’t preventing the Orioles from acquiring a top starter. But they certainly hope that he can go the distance and reach his enormous potential. Gotta stop with the lat and shoulder soreness. He could be an ace if he’s healthy. He’s got that kind of stuff.

Who's your early minor league dark horse(s) to make their MLB debut in 2025?
Here’s one for you that’s outside the (batter’s) box: Catcher Maverick Handley is on the taxi squad and has his contract selected because of an injury. He’s already in the clubhouse and the team doesn’t want to play shorthanded. It happened twice this year with catcher David Bañuelos and he received his first and only major league at-bat. Bañuelos was the leading taxi squad guy this year, but Handley has done it in the past.

The Orioles went the international route to find a starting pitcher.

The team announced this evening that it signed Japanese right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano, 35, to a one-year major league contract. ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported that the deal pays $13 million.

Sugano has spent his entire 12-year professional career with the Yomiuri Giants of Nippon Professional Baseball’s Central League in Japan, and his numbers and accolades are impressive. He won the Central League’s Most Valuable Player this season after going 15-3 with a 1.67 ERA - 29 earned runs in 156 2/3 innings – 0.945 WHIP, 132 hits, 16 walks and 111 strikeouts in 24 starts, including three complete games and one shutout. He surrendered only six home runs.

Still strong as he ages, Sugano posted a 2.6 percent walk rate and 0.9 walks per nine innings that ranked as the lowest of his career. He led NPB in wins and his ERA was second – and the second-lowest of his career.

Sugano has gone 136-74 with a 2.43 ERA, 1.031 WHIP and 1,585 strikeouts in 276 career games over 1,857 innings with the Giants. He’s a three-time Central League Most Valuable Player, three-time Central League Golden Glove winner, eight-time All-Star, two-time Eiji Sawamura Award honoree - presented to the top pitcher in NPB - and MVP of the 2013 Central League Climax Series that’s the playoff format in NPB.

The Orioles today announced that they have agreed to terms with right-handed pitcher TOMOYUKI SUGANO (菅野 智之) on a one-year major league contract for the 2025 season. 

Sugano (pronounced toh-moh-yoo-kee soo-GAH-noh), 35, has spent his entire 12-year professional career with the Yomiuri Giants of Nippon Professional Baseball’s Central League in Japan. He won the Central League MVP last season, going 15-3 with a 1.67 ERA (29 ER/156.2 IP) with 132 hits (6 HR), 16 walks, four hit batters, and 111 strikeouts in 24 starts, including three complete games and one shutout. His 2.6 percent walk rate and 0.9 walks-per-nine innings were the lowest of his career. Sugano led NPB in wins, while his ERA ranked second and was the second lowest of his career.

A native of Sagamihara, Kanagawa, Japan, Sugano has compiled a 136-74 record with a 2.43 ERA (501 ER/1,857.0 IP) with 1,568 hits (142 HR), 347 walks (12 IBB), 52 hit batters, and 1,585 strikeouts in 276 career games (248 GS) with the Giants. He is a three-time Central League MVP (2014, 2020, 2024), a three-time Central League Mitsui Golden Glove Award winner (2016-18), an eight-time All-Star (2013-19, 2022), a two-time Eiji Sawamura Award honoree (2017-18), presented to the top pitcher in NPB each season, and MVP of the 2013 Central League Climax Series, the playoff format in NPB. Sugano has led the Central League in wins four times (2017-18, 2020, & 2024), ERA four times (2014, 2016-18), and strikeouts twice (2016, 2018). He earned the triple crown in 2018 after leading NPB in wins, ERA, and strikeouts. He also pitched for Team Japan at the 2017 World Baseball Classic and started the semifinal game against Team USA on March 21, 2017, at Dodger Stadium, allowing one unearned run on three hits and one walk with six strikeouts in 6.0 innings. Sugano attended Tokai University (Tokyo, JPN).

The Orioles’ 40-man roster currently has 40 players.

Tyler O’Neill knows his splits and how he’s joining the Orioles in large part because they wanted a right-handed bat to improve their production against lefties. However, he didn’t sign a contract to sit.

The Orioles are prepared to pay O’Neill $49.5 million over three seasons, with an opt-out clause after 2025. He’s basically the replacement for free agent right fielder Anthony Santander, and he’s geared toward exceeding the 113 appearances with the Red Sox this summer.

He’s coming to play.

“Obviously, they want me to be part of the everyday lineup, and I’m looking forward to being able to contribute in that regard,” O’Neill said earlier today in his introductory video call with local media.

“I understand last year I had some splits that were a little more drastic than in years before, but honestly, part of that was playing at Fenway Park and just being in that home ballpark and really trying to tailor my approach to the left field wall. They wanted me to open up to the pull side and kind of had to play up front a little bit more, which left me less room for error. And it worked out. It worked out well, for sure, but it definitely caused some streakiness, so to be able to play in a ballpark that’s symmetrical like Camden Yards, I’m really excited to be able to exploit right-center more and use the whole field and see what I can post on top of that.”

During my recent conversation with Matt Blood, the O’s vice president, player development and domestic scouting, we spent much of the time discussing what happened on the O’s farm in 2024.

He was honest to say the club was, to use his words “not celebrating” the farm offense from last season.

Sure, a lot went right and players like Samuel Basallo and Coby Mayo and others had plenty of special days and nights on the farm.

But overall, Triple-A Norfolk’s team OPS of .752 rated 13^th of 20 teams in the International League. Double-A Bowie (now Chesapeake) had a team OPS of .667 (ninth of 12 in the Eastern League). High-A Aberdeen was at .684 to finish seventh of 12 in the South Atlantic League. Low-A Delmarva, at .641, ranked 11^th of 12 in the Carolina League.

Like the big league club making some changes and adjustments on offense, the farm system may do some of the same moving forward.

When the Orioles recently announced their coaching staff for the 2025 season, one of the new hires was Robinson Chirinos, who will be the team’s bench coach.

That is quite the entry into the coaching ranks for Chirinos, 40, whose last season playing in the majors was in 2022 for the Orioles.

He played in 67 games for that O’s team, and in 220 plate appearances he hit .179/.265/.287/.552. Those numbers don’t come close to telling the real story of his year. He was a major presence in the O’s clubhouse, cited often by manager Brandon Hyde as a clubhouse difference-maker for an O’s club that went from 52 wins in 2021 to 83 that season.

He helped teach the Orioles how to win.

That was the team’s first winning season since 2016, and the 31-win gain was the O’s largest in a single season since 1989, when they made a 33-game improvement from their 54–107 record in 1988.

During my interview in this space recently with Orioles Double-A Bowie (now Chesapeake) manager Roberto Mercado, he spent some time talking about his work in the Arizona Fall League and the O’s players he managed there.

But he also spent some time talking about his 2024 season with Double-A Bowie and some of the notable players he managed there this year. We’ll feature this in two parts and check in on a few players today and more in a few days.

Right-handed pitcher Alex Pham, age 25, was not added to the O’s 40-man roster and was available to any team in the recent Rule 5 draft.

Pham, a 19^th-round draft pick from the University of San Francisco, had a solid year for Bowie and he spent all of the 2024 season with the Baysox, making 27 starts.

Pham, who pitched to an ERA of 2.57 in 2023 between High-A Aberdeen and Bowie, went 7-4 with a 4.24 ERA for the Baysox this season. Over 119 innings he allowed 97 hits, had a 1.24 WHIP with a .221 average against and .669 OPS against. He walked 3.78 per nine and fanned 10.44.

The weekend always seems like an opportune time to dump the contents of the mailbag, and chances to do it are running out in 2024.

You ask and I answer, which leads us to the latest sequel to the beloved 2008 original.

I thought about editing, but it appealed to me as much as coal in my stocking or trying to hit Gerrit Cole.

Also, my mailbag comes down your chimney with a bag of presents and your mailbag sweeps it.

Do you think Tyler O'Neill will avoid the injured list for the entire season?
O’Neill has landed on it 14 times in his career, including three in 2024. But I’d have trouble predicting a full season out of any player. You never know when an injury is gonna strike. There’s luck involved, too. “I think the injuries that he has had have been minor,” executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias told the media at the Winter Meetings. “They’re things that have blown over. We’re hoping we can keep him healthy. We’ll take good care of him. We’ll have DH at-bats available for him. … He’s a young guy and I think he’s had bad luck in some regards with some injuries.”