SARASOTA, Fla. – The Opening Day roster for the Orioles isn’t going to include infielder Jorge Mateo. The fastest player in camp made a speedy exit from it.

On the first workout day, executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias confirmed that Mateo is making progress but probably won’t get enough at-bats to be ready on March 27 in Toronto.

“He’s doing a hitting progression, hitting buildup,” Elias said. “He’s playing catch. Everything’s going well, but he’s likely to be held back in camp. Probably not somebody we’re going to see in Grapefruit League until very, very late in camp and that will probably put him in a position where he’s unlikely to make the Opening Day roster, but we anticipate him being a huge part of this team. He’s gonna be back in the early part of the season, hopefully not too long after Opening Day. But he’s in a very good spot.”

Mateo underwent ligament-repair surgery on his left elbow on Aug. 28 after suffering a severe dislocation in a collision with shortstop Gunnar Henderson. He could have given the team a seventh infielder and right-handed hitting backup in the outfield.

The Orioles signed Mateo to a $3.55 million contract with a $5.5 million club option for 2026 to avoid an arbitration hearing. They missed his speed and defense last summer, but he hit .229/.267/.401 in 68 games.

The opportunities to empty the offseason mailbag are dwindling. Spring training is right around the corner. Who’s excited?

That’s my only question. The rest must come from the readers.

You ask, I try to answer, and we have the latest sequel to the beloved 2008 original.

I don’t tamper with length, style, clarity or brevity. I usually don’t bother to shower. This is a very casual mailbag.

Also, my mailbag reports early and yours has visa problems and a maxed-out AMEX card.

Unlike your neighbor’s golden retriever, Zach Eflin despises walks. 

“I hate giving people a free pass … It really comes down to… I don’t like giving in to guys and just letting them take first base,” Eflin said with a smile in his first interaction with Baltimore reporters after being traded to the O’s back in July.

The right-hander went on to toss over 55 innings for the Orioles in the second half of last season. In that stretch, Eflin only walked 11 batters. The veteran’s aptitude for limiting free passes helped him allow just 16 total earned runs in his nine starts in Orioles orange. 

Nearly 100 pitchers in baseball had a fastball of at least 95 mph last season, but Eflin doesn’t pitch that way. The righty boasts a six-pitch arsenal, but none exceed an average of 93 mph. He won’t rack up the strikeout numbers, nor tout a huge whiff rate. 

Eflin excels at commanding the strike zone. His 3.5% walk rate put him in the 98th percentile in the majors in 2024. And when he did move out of the zone, he did so intentionally, to the tune of a 32.6% chase rate according to Statcast, good for the 88th percentile in baseball. 

Adam Jones used to flash his range in center field, running down fly balls in the gaps or back at the wall. His impactful reach touched the city and its communities with his charitable work. And now, the Orioles are counting on his influence in Japan.

Jones spent the last two years of his professional career with the Orix Buffalos of Nippon Professional Baseball before the Orioles hired him this week as special advisor to the general manager and community ambassador. Executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias stated yesterday in a video call with media that Jones is “going to be helpful” in the club’s plans to tap into the Japanese market.

The Orioles gave starter Tomoyuki Sugano a $13 million contract, making him just the third Japanese player to sign with the club directly from his home country. Jones didn’t develop a relationship with him over the years, but they faced each other in the NPB and the 2017 World Baseball Classic.

Jones isn’t paid as a scout, but it can come with the job, and he “signed off” on Sugano, according to Elias.

"He's a fan of Sugano,” Elias said.

As we are now just a few weeks away from the start of spring training and the new season, today let’s take a look at the O’s roster in terms of four components.

They are the offense and defense and the pitching – starting pitching and the bullpen.

We don’t know the Opening Day roster yet, obviously, or the final roster that will start camp, but at this point it’s pretty set. Yes, we could get a change or a few of them, but today we're going with what they have right now to assess how it all looks.

If you break those four down, I see all four as solid units for the team heading into the season. I will rank them as they look today, from strongest to weakest:

Offense

The first workout for pitchers and catchers is in three weeks. Players will take their physicals and head outdoors. The newcomers will get acclimated to a different city, camp and group of teammates.

Fortunately for them, it’s always a welcoming bunch. Foes become family in this organization.

The media will begin building a working relationship with backup catcher Gary Sánchez, who signed for $8.5 million on Dec. 10. The guys throwing to him will do the same.

“I loved the move,” major league field coordinator and catching instructor Tim Cossins said on WBAL-Radio’s Hot Stove Show. “I’ve known Gary from across the field for a long time and I’ve always been looking forward to an opportunity to potentially work with him at one point, and that’s going to happen. I’ve talked to him several times and I think he’s a good player and I think he could help this team, and I can’t wait to get to work with him.”

Reliever Andrew Kittredge is signed for a guaranteed $10 million this season. He gives the Orioles a high-leverage reliever for the late innings.

The only news to pass through the Orioles organization yesterday was Livan Soto clearing outright waivers and being assigned to Triple-A Norfolk.

The previous times being designated for assignment gave Soto the freedom to refuse it. He also knows about the crowded infield that makes it harder to infiltrate the major league roster. But he stays.

Having Soto in the fold but off the 40-man roster doesn’t qualify as a surprise to me. I thought about five that I’ll post here.

Signing Tomoyuki Sugano.

It makes sense now, finding a veteran starter on a one-year deal in the international free agent market who’s had tremendous success in Japan and is viewed as capable of adapting to major league hitters with a six-pitch mix, strong work ethic and open mind. The cost is reasonable by today’s standards at $13 million. It comes across as a low-risk, high-reward type of situation.

The Orioles have decisions to make about their rotation beyond whether they try tapping into the trade market for an ace and the order of it.

A few reasons exist to consider a six-man setup. A few others make it unlikely as camp breaks.

Signing free agents Tomoyuki Sugano and Charlie Morton to one-year deals broadened a crowd that already included returnees Zach Eflin, Grayson Rodriguez and Dean Kremer. Executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias won’t turn his back on an obtainable upgrade, but he’s also pleased with the current group and would be willing to ride into Opening Day with it.

Bringing in another starter without trading from his supply would leave Elias with even more of an abundance, and it already includes Albert Suárez and left-handers Trevor Rogers and Cade Povich. Chayce McDermott and Brandon Young also will be in camp with the intent of impressing manager Brandon Hyde and his coaches and putting themselves in consideration.

The extra starter would move Sugano closer to his routine in Japan with the additional rest. It could increase the chances of Rodriguez giving the Orioles a full season and freshen the others.

The passing days bring us closer to spring training and the resolution to some burning issues, but other answers aren’t forthcoming until much later. Until games are played and the summer months lead us to fall.

Here are a few more.

How will Tomoyuki Sugano adjust to the majors?

Sugano also must adjust to life in the U.S. This isn’t only about baseball.

Speaking of baseball, it’s going to be different from the one used in Japan. It won’t be tacky, it’s slightly smaller and the seams are smaller.  

The Orioles entered a new week with a deeper rotation and the motivation to keep searching for pitching.

Camp doesn’t open for another six weeks.

The mailbag opened again over the weekend. You asked and I answered, leaving us with the latest sequel to the beloved 2008 original.

I don’t do much editing, but I provide reminders that my mailbag owns a snow blower and your mailbag shovels the driveway with a spatula.

Even if another starting pitcher and reliever are added to this roster, the current 2025 team seems like we're starting with less than we did in 2024. The Yankees and Red Sox both improved dramatically on paper, and the Blue Jays are still frantically searching for free agents who'll accept Canadian money. The Rays always restock from within, so they can never be counted out. What must Mike Elias do to make this year's Orioles a viable contender, or is this destined to be a "regrouping" year?
There is no prize money for longest question. Just so you know. This question was submitted before the Charlie Morton signing, but I’m sure it holds up. The Orioles already consider themselves contenders based on their returning players and additions. They expect better production from hitters who slumped and they’re counting on better health. Also, the offseason isn’t over. I’m sure you’ve been reminded that they traded for Corbin Burnes on Feb. 1. I think this is a playoff team. That’s as far as I’ll go right now.

We could call it a “two tiered” Orioles rotation at this point. They have two at the top right now in right-handers Zack Eflin and Grayson Rodriguez and three that follow that in some order.

As of today, Eflin or Rodriguez could get the Opening Day assignment with the other starting second.

Third through fifth in some combo, is expected to be Dean Kremer, Tomoyuki Sugano and Charlie Morton. That is how I stack it as of today, Kremer, Sugano and Morton fifth. Others may project Morton at No. 3 or Sugano at No. 3. Lot of options here. No lefties in this rotation, but they are in the depth behind this group currently with pitchers like southpaws Cade Povich and Trevor Rogers. Could one of that duo impact the Opening Day five? Of course, it’s baseball, changes and injuries happen. Always write your plans in January in pencil with a big eraser close by.

The Orioles hopes for Eflin are likely big. In 2023 he pitched to an ERA of 3.50 with 16 wins for Tampa Bay and finished sixth for the AL Cy Young award. Traded to the Orioles on July 26 last summer for three minor leaguers, he went 5-2 with a 2.60 ERA over nine starts.

With a combined 3.54 ERA and 1.054 WHIP the past two seasons producing an ERA+ of 115, he will be expected to pitch to that form for the 2025 Orioles.

As the offseason rolls merrily along, except of course for the segment of the fan base that feels flattened by it, win projections and championship odds already have surfaced on the internet.

They seemed premature in December and remain so in the first week of January, but they always can be adjusted later.

The Orioles could or could not be done with their search for starting pitching and they must address the bullpen, but they’re graded now based on losing their ace starter and 44-homer bat. The dip is minimized by the additions of outfielder Tyler O’Neill and Japanese right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano, along with backup catcher Gary Sánchez, at a combined $71 million.

Expectations could change again after the Orioles announced Friday evening that they signed veteran starter Charlie Morton to a $15 million deal.

The consensus seems to be that the Orioles remain a playoff team, which back in the day would have been celebrated with tremendous enthusiasm. They haven’t qualified for the postseason in three consecutive years since 1969-71, reaching the World Series each time. Perceptions of a dynasty are ruined by losses in ’69 and ’71. Perceptions of the current club are marred by back-to-back sweeps.

The Orioles closed out the year 2024 by signing super-utility player and former first-round draft pick Nick Gordon to a minor league contract on Tuesday. The month featured three major league deals, bringing a right fielder (Tyler O’Neill), backup catcher (Gary Sánchez) and starting pitcher (Tomoyuki Sugano).

Another starter could arrive in January, though it wasn’t until Feb. 1, 2024 that the Corbin Burnes trade became official. The Orioles could arrange a reunion with right-hander Jack Flaherty, with reported interest on both sides. But it might take a five-year commitment. The Orioles could arrange a reunion with reliever Tanner Scott, since they want to strengthen the bullpen. But it might take a four-year commitment.

I could finally get around to sharing more questions from my mailbag. It dropped like the Times Square ball and the contents spilled out.

You ask, I answer, and we have the latest sequel to the beloved 2008 original. Also, my mailbag rings in the new year and your mailbag rings doorbells selling magazine subscriptions.

Who is Nick Gordon?
Gordon is a left-handed hitter who plays everywhere except first base and catcher. He was the fifth-overall pick by the Twins in 2014. The Marlins outrighted him in August. Gordon will come to camp competing for a bench role but likely would need a trade or injury to clear room. Having him in Triple-A would come in handy.

The year 2025 is upon us. Break out the resolutions and other promises that will be broken like a hockey player’s front teeth.

I usually avoid them but figured I’d come up with a list and invite everyone here to share their own. They can be personal and professional. They can be Orioles related. They can come back to bite you now that they’re documented.

Don’t be ashamed if the elliptical that you kept talking about before Christmas is used to dry your cotton laundry. Or if a vow to avoid having your favorite team dictate your mood is shattered 10 minutes after pitchers and catchers report. These things happen. You’re in a safe space here.

Here we go. I typed softly in case you’re hungover.

No more whining about travel.

Sure the Orioles, like most teams that don’t have one, could use an ace pitcher. They still hope to add one before the start of the 2025 season. 

But their current rotation has the makings of being a good one.

Here is how it looks today:

Zach Eflin: He is the probable Opening Day starter. After the trade to the Orioles, over nine starts, he went 5-2 with a 2.60 ERA. Only nine pitchers, including the Orioles' Corbin Burnes, that qualified, posted season-long ERAs under 3.00. To do it even for nine starts was impressive.

Eflin finished sixth for the 2023 American League Cy Young Award and has been among the best pitchers in the American League. Over the last two years, while Burnes posted a 3.15 ERA and 1.083 WHIP, Eflin was at 3.54 and 1.085.

We're nearing the Christmas holiday with the Orioles still in the market for a top starter but solidifying the back portion of the rotation with Tomoyuki Sugano. How far he's pushed back depends on whether a new pitcher arrives via trade or free agency.

This much is certain: Sugano won’t be intimidated by pitching in the American League East. He welcomes the challenge and believes he’s prepared for it after spending 12 seasons with the Yomiuri Giants in the Japan Central League.

“I’m very excited to play in such a competitive division against great teams, great franchise and great history,” he said via VC Sports Group agent Shawn Novak. “I’ve also played for a great franchise with a huge history and successful history with the Tokyo Giants, so it's a great fit for me. I’m really looking forward to competing in that division and in the league in general.”

Sugano is eager to sample the Charleston’s soft shell crabs next summer in Harbor East. By then, he’ll already have bonded with catcher Adley Rutschman. Perhaps they can dine together outside of the clubhouse.

“I’m looking forward to competing, looking forward to working with Adley Rutschman, a fantastic catcher,” Sugano said.

Today, it’s another edition, our pre-Holiday edition, of several questions for O’s fans. Per usual, answer one question or all of them. Respond to other readers' answers with your takes on their takes. 

On to the questions:

1) Where does right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano slot into the O’s rotation? And after going 15-3 with a 1.67 ERA in Japan, how well will he do for the 2025 Orioles?

2) Which player will bat leadoff the most next season?

3) Which player will lead the 2025 O’s in home runs and hit how many?

Before we get to the holiday leftovers and play the game of “does this smell OK,” we should dig a little deeper into the mailbag.

Grab a shovel.

My editing consisted of thinking “maybe I should” and changing it to “absolutely not.”

The bullpen sorely lacked strikeouts in 2024. Was that due more to lousy luck or the arms not having strong "out" pitches? How do they improve on that in 2025?
The Orioles ranked 22^nd in relief strikeouts with 571. They were 14^th in 2023 with 614, and the total would have been higher with a healthy September from Félix Bautista. His return figures to ramp up the Ks. A full season from Seranthony Domínguez, who averages 10.4 per nine innings in his career, also is going to make a difference. You could say the same about Gregory Soto, who averaged 11.2 with the Phillies and 10.7 with the Orioles. Yennier Cano struck out 65 batters to match last year’s total, but he did it in 60 innings compared to 72 2/3 in 2023. Keegan Akin has averaged 10.3 and 11.1 the past two seasons in 23 2/3 and 78 2/3 innings, respectively. Danny Coulombe averaged 9.7, but only in 29 2/3 innings due to his elbow surgery. How was this team 22^nd?

I see that Cedric Mullins is now a member of the Executive Committee for the MLBPA. I'd be interested in knowing what is currently being discussed and how Cedric feels about being part of the inner workings of the Players Association.
That isn’t a question. Me, too, and he’ll be asked about it if he’s at the Birdland Caravan or in spring training.

I’ll be home for Christmas, and with a mailbag that should be a little lighter after another dumping.

You dared to ask and I deemed your questions worthy of my attention. Don’t take the honor lightly.

Also, my mailbag roasts chestnuts on an open fire and your mailbag wrestles squirrels for acorns.

How much of a language barrier will there be for Tomoyuki Sugano in the clubhouse next year? He obviously won't have an interpreter in a mound meeting with Adley Rutschman, pitching coaches and other infielders during a game.
Sugano is allowed to use an interpreter for mound sessions. That isn’t an issue. And I’ve watched teammates in the past welcome foreign-born players and bust down that barrier. Koji Uehara learned some new words that he couldn’t repeat in interviews, and he loved it.

Who was our interpreter for Koji?
I had to look it up. It’s been a while. Jiwon Bang was Koji’s interpreter.

One of the most important questions relating to the Orioles was attached earlier this week. It came out of nowhere.

Well, it’s actually Japan, but still unexpected with the rotation chatter and speculation focusing on trades and the major league free-agent market.  

Will Tomoyuki Sugano’s stuff translate to similar results in the U.S.?

Sugano will be the third Japanese pitcher to appear with the Orioles, an important distinction because Tsuyoshi Wada underwent ligament-reconstructive elbow surgery in May 2012, was released the following year and never made it past Triple-A with them. He doesn’t count. Zero return on the two-year, $8.15 million contract he received.

(Easily forgotten is how the Cubs signed Wada in 2014 and he tossed six hitless innings against the Orioles on Aug. 24 at Wrigley Field. Steve Pearce led off the seventh with a home run.)